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Item 5 Visual Slideshow provided by Staff at Meeting
GENERAL FUND FINANCIAL RESULTS, COVID-19 ECONOMIC IMPACTS UPDATE AND LONG-RANGE FORECAST MARCH 2, 2021 Audited General Fund Financial Results (FY 19-20) •Revenues •Expenditures •COVID-19 Broader Economic Trends Broader Economic Trends New Data Broader Economic Trends New Data Broader Economic Trends New Data Broader Economic Trends New Data Local Economic Trends Local Economic Trends 7 Years 3 Years •Economic future looking brighter •Virus containment •Government response •Consumer and business confidence Other Considerations •Stewards of public funds •Does not •Predict the future; actual results will differ •Does help identify •Challenges and opportunities •Causes of fiscal imbalances •Strategies to secure financial sustainability Long-Range Financial Forecast 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 PropertyTax 4.50%4.00%4.00%3.50%3.00%2.50%2.50%2.50%2.50%2.50% Sales Tax 4.70%3.80%3.10%2.80%2.90%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00% TOT 8.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00% Motor Veh.Tax 1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00% Franchise Fees (0.50%)(0.50%)(0.50%)(0.50%)(0.50%)(0.50%)(0.50%)(0.50%)(0.50%)(0.50%) Cell Leases 3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00% Interest 0.50%1.00%1.50%2.10%2.10%2.30%2.30%2.30%2.30%2.30% Long-Range Financial Forecast Assumptions 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 SalaryIncreases 0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00% CalPERS –Misc.1 30.47%32.16%32.97%33.70%30.93%31.00%30.88%30.75%30.63%30.50% CalPERS –Safety1 43.49%45.02%45.53%45.95%45.59%45.14%44.68%44.23%43.78%43.33% Health Benefits1 16.00%16.04%16.08%16.12%16.16%16.20%16.24%16.28%16.32%16.36% Other Benefits1 10.73%11.24%11.78%12.35%12.94%13.56%14.21%14.89%15.60%16.35% Overtime1 0.93%1.09%0.57%0.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00% 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 Prof./Cont.Svcs.3.55%3.55%3.55%3.55%3.55%2.14%2.14%2.14%2.14%2.14% Supplies 2.85%2.85%2.85%2.85%2.85%2.14%2.14%2.14%2.14%2.14% Utilities 7.65%7.65%7.65%7.65%7.65%2.14%2.14%2.14%2.14%2.14% Asset Mgmt. (Maint.)7.55%7.55%7.55%7.55%7.55%7.50%7.50%7.50%7.50%7.50% Asset Mgmt.(Repl.)7.05%7.05%7.05%7.05%7.05%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00% Misc.Oper.Exp.0.65%0.65%0.65%0.65%0.65%2.14%2.14%2.14%2.14%2.14% Cost Allocation 5.80%5.80%5.80%5.80%5.80%2.14%2.14%2.14%2.14%2.14% Capital Outlay 2.14%2.14%2.14%2.14%2.14%2.14%2.14%2.14%2.14%2.14% Capital Replacement 5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00% CapitalImp.Program 0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00% Law Enforcement 4.95%4.95%4.95%4.95%4.95%4.35%4.35%4.35%4.35%4.35% 1. Are not percentage increases, but a percentage of salaries. •Baseline forecast •Budgetary basis •10-year horizon Long-Range Financial Forecast •Challenges •Attraction and retention •Sustainability of core services •Sustainability of asset management •Opportunities (Revenues) •Ensure appropriate fees •Ensure appropriate cost allocation •Revenue enhancement •Opportunities (Expenses) •Sustainable service levels •Business refinements/technological enhancements •Adjust asset management approach •Pension obligation bonds Long-Range Financial Forecast •Next Steps •Continue to enhance/refine forecast •Update based on projected actuals/budget Long-Range Financial Forecast Questions FY 2019-20 Projected (as of April 2020) FY 2019-20 Prelim. (as of August 2020)FY 2019-20 Final (Audited) Property Tax $22,750,001 $22,362,155 $22,362,155 Sales Tax 13,135,648 14,185,047 14,185,047 Franchise Fees, TOT 2,883,083 2,525,262 2,890,708 Other 9,195,596 9,680,108 10,379,110 Total Operating Revenues 47,964,328 48,752,572 49,817,020 Legislative/Admin. Services 1,062,431 842,814 1,260,284 Finance 1,818,463 1,791,033 1,793,891 Human Resources 1,111,268 1,107,004 1,119,226 Community Services 6,083,434 5,708,872 5,719,232 Development Services 4,861,669 4,990,711 7,868,513 Public Works 6,083,876 5,708,872 5,667,791 Fire 13,026,391 13,013,153 13,175,003 Law Enforcement 13,504,284 13,492,256 13,511,871 Total Operating Expenditures 47,551,816 46,654,715 50,115,811 Net Operating Change (298,791) Capital Expenditures (4,951,196) Proceeds from Sale 3,364,021 Transfers In 2,827,727 Transfers Out (2,515,042) Net Fund Balance Change (1,573,281)