Appendix I Economics
ADMINISTRATIVE DRAFT
FISCAL IMPACT ANALYSIS
FOR
EXPANSION OF POWAY WALMART
January 13, 2010
Prepared for:
LSA Associates
Prepared by:
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
24835 E. La Palma Avenue, Suite I
Yorba Linda, California 92887
Telephone: (714) 692-9596
Fax: (714) 692-9597
Email: info@natelsondale.com
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page Number
I. INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................1
II. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY......................................................................................2
A. FISCAL REVENUES...............................................................................................................2
B. FISCAL COSTS......................................................................................................................2
C. NET FISCAL BENEFIT...........................................................................................................2
III. FISCAL REVENUES ............................................................................................4
A. PROPERTY TAX REVENUE..................................................................................................4
B. PROPERTY TAX IN-LIEU OF VEHICLE LICENSE FEE REVENUE.....................................5
C. SALES TAX REVENUE..........................................................................................................6
D. UTILITY FRANCHISE TAXES................................................................................................7
IV. FISCAL COSTS...................................................................................................8
A. LAW ENFORCEMENT............................................................................................................8
B. FIRE DEPARTMENT..............................................................................................................8
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Poway Walmart Expansion
Fiscal Impact Analysis – Page 1
I. INTRODUCTION
This study evaluates the potential fiscal impacts to the City of Poway that would result from the
proposed expansion of the Poway Walmart store. The existing Walmart discount store, located
on 13425 Community Road, would be expanded into a Walmart Supercenter. The expansion
area would total 54,706 square feet devoted to new food/grocery sales1.
Overview of the Scope of the Study
Fiscal Revenues. The fiscal analysis projects the annually recurring impact that the proposed
project would have on the City’s budget. The analysis considers the following General Fund
fiscal revenues:
• Sales tax revenue; and
• Property tax in-lieu of vehicle license fee (VLF) revenue;
In addition to General Fund fiscal revenues, the fiscal analysis considers property tax increment
that will accrue to the City of Poway’s Redevelopment Agency.
Fiscal Costs. The proposed project is not expected to result in significant new cost impacts to
the City of Poway. For police protection services, the City is served by the San Diego County
Sheriff’s Department, which has an existing Poway station located on 13100 Bowron Road. In
addition, the City’s contract for services currently provides for 46 sworn officers. The Draft
Environmental Impact Report (DEIR) indicates that the project would not significantly impact
police services, while noting that the increase in on-site employees and customers could result
in an increase in police service calls. As discussed further in Section IV-B, the Sheriff’s
Department anticipates that the proposed project would not generate any cost impact to the City
for police protection services, as any potential increase in service calls is expected to be
negligible.
For fire protection services, the City of Poway is served by the City of Poway Fire Department.
As discussed further in Section IV-B, the City of Poway Fire Department anticipates that the
proposed project would not generate any cost impact to the City for fire protection services, as
any potential increase in service calls is expected to be negligible. Finally, the project does not
include any infrastructure improvements (e.g., new roads, traffic signals, landscaping) that will
become the City’s maintenance responsibility. Thus, there will not be any cost impacts to the
City of Poway’s Public Works Department.
1 In addition, the project will also include an expansion of the Walmart’s existing fast food restaurant from 1,634 to
2,137 square feet, an increase of 504 square feet. However, the small increase in the food tenant’s space is not
anticipated to significantly increase sales volumes for the food tenant. Rather, it will enable the restaurant to operate
more efficiently and to provide more convenient seating for the establishment’s customers.
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Poway Walmart Expansion
Fiscal Impact Analysis – Page 2
II. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This section summarizes the proposed project’s direct fiscal impacts on the City of Poway. The
indicated impacts would accrue to the City on an annual basis, and are expressed in 2009
dollars.
A. Fiscal Revenues
Table II-1, on page 3, summarizes annual City General Fund revenues that would be directly
generated by the proposed project. Total new General Fund revenue generated by the
proposed project is projected to be approximately $3,100 per year.
The revenue projections provided in this analysis include only annually-recurring income
sources; one-time revenues such as building permit fees are not included as they are generally
assumed to represent an off-set of a corresponding City cost and thus do not represent net
income to the City.
Given that the proposed project is located within a redevelopment project area, the Poway
Redevelopment Agency will receive a significant amount of the property tax increment
generated by the project. The property tax increment distribution is also shown on Table II-2 on
page 3.
B. Fiscal Costs
As discussed above on page 1 and in Section IV (page 8), the project is not expected to
generate any quantifiable new costs to the City.
C. Net Fiscal Benefit
The proposed project would generate a net fiscal benefit to the City’s General Fund of
approximately $3,100 per year, indicating that the project would be largely fiscal neutral to the
City.
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Poway Walmart Expansion
Fiscal Impact Analysis – Page 3
Table II-1
Net Fiscal Impact
Proposed Walmart Expansion Project
City of Poway
General Fund Revenues Amount
Sales Tax 1/ $0
Vehicle License Fee (VLF) Triple Flip 3,100
Total $3,100
General Fund Expenditures
Police $0
Fire 0
Total $0
Net Fiscal Impact - General Fund $3,100
Non-General Fund Revenue
Poway Redevelopment Agency $53,338
County/Special Districts 15,044
Total $68,383
Source: City of Poway, Fire Department; San Diego County
Sheriff's Department; The Natelson Dale Group, Inc. (TNDG).
Notes: 1/ The project may ultimately generate some new sales
tax revenue to the City. However, to remain conservative, we
have assumed there would no new sales tax revenue
generated by the project. See Section III-C.
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Poway Walmart Expansion
Fiscal Impact Analysis – Page 4
III. FISCAL REVENUES
The proposed project would generate new City General Fund and Poway Redevelopment
Agency revenues in the following categories:
• Property tax revenue
• Property tax in-lieu of vehicle license fee (VLF) revenue
• Sales tax revenue; and
• Utility franchise fees
This section describes the assumptions and factors that were used to project annual revenues
in each category.
A. Property Tax Revenue
Table III-1 shows the projected development value that has been assumed for purposes of
calculating the incremental property tax base. The projected value is based on a factor of
$125.00 per square foot of building area.2
Based on information provided by the City’s Finance Department, the net tax increment
accruing to the Poway Redevelopment Agency is projected at approximately 78% of the
incremental property tax revenue. The remaining 22% will accrue to various County agencies
and special districts. Table III-1, below, calculates the annual net property tax revenue
associated with the proposed project.
Table III-1
Calculation of Property Tax Generation
Proposed Walmart Expansion Project
City of Poway
Variable Amount
Square Feet of Grocery Space Added 54,706
Value per Square Foot of Space $125
Total Assessed Value $6,838,250
Total Property Tax @ 1.0% $68,383
Poway Redevelopment Agency @ 78.0% $53,338
Pass Through - County/Special Districts @ 22.0% $15,044
Source: City of Poway, Finance Department; Loopnet; CoStar; TNDG.
2 Based on an analysis of recent shopping center sales transactions from Loopnet and CoStar Group.
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Poway Walmart Expansion
Fiscal Impact Analysis – Page 5
B. Property Tax In-Lieu of Vehicle License Fee Revenue
In addition to the property tax revenue discussed above, the City also receives separate
property tax payment from the State in lieu of Vehicle License Fee (VLF) revenues. This
separate property tax line item accrues to the City’s General Fund. The amount the City
receives from the State increases annually based on the percentage increase in the City’s total
assessed valuation.
Based on the project’s total assessed valuation, as shown above, Table III-2 forecasts the
Property Tax in Lieu of VLF revenue that the project would generate for the City’s General
Fund.
Table III-2
Projected Property Tax in Lieu of VLF Revenue
Proposed Walmart Expansion Project
City of Poway
Calculation Factor Amount
Property Tax in-lieu of VLF, FY 2009-10 $3,685,300
Citywide Assessed Valuation (AV), FY 2008-09 $8,128,989,976
Incremental Assessed Value from Project 1/ $6,838,250
Percentage Increase over FY 2008-09 Base 0.08%
Incremental Property Tax in Lieu of VLF Revenue $3,100
Source: City of Poway, Finance Department; TNDG.
Notes: 1/ See Table III-1.
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Poway Walmart Expansion
Fiscal Impact Analysis – Page 6
C. Sales Tax Revenue
The project will potentially generate new sales tax revenues from the grocery expansion area.
Table III-3, on the following page, shows the detailed potential sales tax revenue projections.
As discussed in the economic impact analysis prepared by The Natelson Dale Group, Inc.
(TNDG)3, the proposed project would generate annual grocery sales of approximately $33.9
million, based on a sales per square foot factor of $620. As projected in the economic impact
analysis, a significant portion of Walmart’s grocery sales would come from a diversion of
existing grocers’ sales in the evaluated trade area. Based on the share of grocery space in
Poway relative to the entire trade area, the City is expected to experience a diversion of
approximately $13.2 million in grocery sales from existing grocers.4 Thus, the net increase in
grocery sales in the City of Poway is projected at approximately $20.7 million.
For typical supermarkets, taxable sales account for 20% to 25% of the store’s total sales.
However, taxable sales are likely to account for a smaller percentage of the Supercenter’s
grocery sales, given that some of the taxable goods in a stand-alone supermarket would be sold
in the general merchandise portion of the Walmart Supercenter. The Supercenter’s grocery
component will generate some taxable sales, though, through the sales of sundries (e.g.,
tobacco, candy/snacks, alcoholic beverages, soft drinks, etc.). Thus, TNDG has estimated that
taxable sales will account for approximately 15%, as opposed to the standard 20% to 25%, of
the total sales of the Supercenter’s grocery component. Applying this factor to the net increase
in grocery sales, as shown on Table III-3 on the following page, the Supercenter’s grocery
component has the potential to generate approximately $31,000 in new sales tax revenue to the
City. However, the store’s existing general retail space already provides some of these taxable
sundries items. Thus, it is unlikely that all of the Supercenter’s taxable sales will represent
“new” sales over and above the amount from the existing store. To remain conservative in this
fiscal analysis (i.e., not to overestimate potential new revenues), we have estimated the
proposed expansion will not generate new taxable sales over and above the existing store’s
taxable sales.
3 See “Urban Decay Study for Poway Walmart Expansion”, January 11, 2010.
4 There is approximately 406,400 square feet of supermarket space in the trade area, 157,000 of which is located in
the City of Poway, or 39% of the total. The estimated sales diversion is calculated as follows: $33,917,220 * 39.0% =
$13,227,911. Thus, net new supermarket sales in the City of Poway is equal to $33,917,220 - $13,227,911 =
$20,689,809.
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Poway Walmart Expansion
Fiscal Impact Analysis – Page 7
Table III-3
Calculation of Potential Sales Tax Generation
Proposed Walmart Expansion Project
City of Poway
Variable Amount
Square Feet of Grocery Space Added 54,706
Sales per Square Foot $620
Total Sales $33,917,720
Diverted Grocery Sales in Poway 1/ ($13,227,911)
"New" Supermarket Sales $20,689,809
Percent of Total Sales - Taxable 15.0%
Total Taxable Sales $3,103,471
Potential Sales Tax @ 1.0% $31,035
Source: TNDG; Progressive Grocer, Super 50, May 2009.
Notes: 1/ Approximately 39% of the total trade area supermarket square feet
is located in the City of Poway. Thus, we have estimated that approximately
39% of the diverted supermarket sales will come from Poway supermarkets.
D. Utility Franchise Taxes
The project would collect utility franchise tax revenue based on consumption of electricity and
natural gas at the project site. The City receives franchise fee revenue equivalent to 1.0% of
utility billings for electricity and natural gas. The Draft EIR indicates that the project could
generate up to a maximum increase of 1,435,075 KWh and 9,815 therms of electricity and
natural gas, respectively, per year. However, the EIR also notes that, based a number of
planned energy efficient features, the expanded store may generate less electricity and natural
gas consumption than the existing store, even with its larger size. Thus, to remain analytically
conservative in this analysis – that is, to not potentially overestimate new revenues – this
analysis does not project an increase in utility franchise fees.
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Poway Walmart Expansion
Fiscal Impact Analysis – Page 8
IV. FISCAL COSTS
The proposed project would require ongoing City services in two major categories:
1. Police protection services to be provided by the San Diego County Sheriff’s Department;
and
2. Fire protection services to be provided by the Poway City Fire Department;
The methodologies for projecting cost impacts to these Departments are described below.
A. Law Enforcement
The San Diego County Sheriff’s Department provides police protection services to the project
site. According to information provided by the Department, the project will only have a minimal
impact on police protection calls for service, and that the currently contracted Sheriff’s
resources are sufficient to absorb any potential increase in calls for service. Thus, Sheriff
Department staff indicated that the proposed project would not generate any financial impact to
the City for police protection services.5
B. Fire Department
The City of Poway Fire Department provides fire protection services to the project site.
According to information provided by the Department, the project will only have a minimal
impact on fire protection service levels, and will not generate any new demands for Department
personnel or supplies. Thus, Fire Department staff indicated that the project would not have
any quantifiable impact on the Department’s budget.6
5 Written communication with San Diego County Sheriff’s Department, December 15, 2009.
6 Written communication with City of Poway Fire Department, December 4, 2009.
URBAN DECAY STUDY
FOR
POWAY WALMART EXPANSION
January 11, 2010
Prepared for:
LSA Associates
Prepared by:
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
24835 E. La Palma Avenue, Suite I
Yorba Linda, CA 92887
Telephone: (714) 692-9596
Fax: (714) 692-9597
Email: info@natelsondale.com
TABLE OF CONTENTS
I. INTRODUCTION..............................................................................................................................1
II. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................................6
II-A. OVERVIEW OF EXISTING RETAIL MARKET IN THE POWAY RETAIL TRADE AREA ..6
II-B. POTENTIAL IMPACT OF WALMART GROCERY AND FAST FOOD TENANT
COMPONENTS ..................................................................................................................7
II-C. POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO OTHER RETAIL CATEGORIES ...........................................10
II-D. CUMULATIVE IMPACTS OF PROJECTS PLANNED IN THE POWAY RETAIL TRADE
AREA ................................................................................................................................12
II-E. POTENTIAL FOR URBAN DECAY ..................................................................................14
III. POWAY RETAIL TRADE AREA DEMAND ANALYSIS...............................................................15
III-A. MARKET AREA BOUNDARIES .......................................................................................15
III-B. HOUSEHOLD AND INCOME LEVELS.............................................................................17
III-C. RETAIL SALES DEMAND ................................................................................................17
III-D. DISTRIBUTION OF RETAIL EXPENDITURES ................................................................18
III-E. DEMAND FOR GROCERY AND EATING AND DRINKING SALES ...............................19
APPENDIX A: RETAIL DEMAND MODEL – POWAY RETAIL TRADE AREA
APPENDIX B: RETAIL INVENTORY – POWAY RETAIL TRADE AREA
APPENDIX C: RETAIL DEMAND MODEL (EXPANDED RETAIL CATEGORIES) – POWAY
RETAIL TRADE AREA
I. INTRODUCTION
This report evaluates the potential economic impacts of the proposed expansion of the existing
Walmart store located on Community Road in the City of Poway, California. The study
specifically evaluates the extent to which the proposed project would have competitive impacts
on existing retail facilities in the trade area and consequently have the potential to result in
urban decay. In addition to addressing the potential impacts of the proposed project itself, the
study also considers cumulative impacts, taking into account the impacts from other planned
and proposed retail projects in the trade area.
As shown on Table I-1, the existing freestanding Walmart store has an interior building area of
approximately 131,769 square feet and a total area of 142,937 square feet, including the 11,168
square foot exterior garden center.
Table I-1:
Poway Walmart Expansion
Square Feet by Component
Existing Proposed Expansion
Store Component Store Store Area
Food Sales Area 0 39,831 39,831
Food Sales Support Area 0 11,814 11,814
Stock Room/Receiving Area 14,779 16,648 1,869
Ancillary Area 10,002 11,194 1,192
Expanded Grocery Area 54,706
General Merchandise Sales 99,079 89,963 (9,116)
Restaurant Tenant Area 1,634 2,137 503
Tire & Lube 6,275 0 (6,275)
Total Interior Building 131,769 171,587 39,818
Outdoor Garden Center 11,168 8,346 (2,822)
Total Store 142,937 179,933 36,996
Source: TNDG.
The expansion area includes the addition of 39,831 square feet of food sales space and 11,814
square feet of food sales support space. Since the expanded selling area is predominantly
devoted to food sales, the analysis assumes that the additional stockroom and ancillary areas
(1,869 square feet and 1,192 square feet, respectively) are food related. Thus, the analysis
assumes a total grocery area expansion of 54,706 square feet 1 . The only other net expansion
would be 503 square feet of additional restaurant tenant space. Other sales areas would
actually decrease in size. In particular, the proposed project includes the elimination of a 6,275
square foot tire and lube facility and reductions in general merchandise space by 9,116 square
feet and exterior garden center space by 2,822 square feet. The interior store will be increased
by a net total of 39,818 square feet to a total area of 171,587. The overall store area, including
1 It should be noted that the existing Walmart store has approximately four aisles of existing grocery space. Thus, the
actual amount of new grocery space may be somewhat less than the assumed 54,706 square feet. However, to
remain analytically conservative in this analysis – that is, not to potentially underestimate impacts in the supermarket
category – this analysis assumes that all of the expanded store’s grocery space will represent new grocery sales in
the trade area.
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Retail Market Impact Analysis for Proposed Expansion of the Poway Walmart
Page 1
the exterior garden center, will be increased by a net 36,996 square feet to a total of 179,933
square feet.
Based on the most recent project information, this analysis assumes that the project expansion
would open in 2011. Since the grocery area is the only selling area of the store that is being
substantially expanded, this economic impact analysis focuses on the potential for the 54,706
square foot proposed expanded grocery component of the store to negatively impact the other
existing supermarkets in the relevant trade area (as defined below). The analysis also
considers the potential impacts of the 503 square foot expansion of the restaurant tenant area.
In addition to assessment of the potential project-specific impacts, the analysis also evaluates
the cumulative impacts associated with the project when its economic impacts are considered
together with the economic impacts of all major retail projects currently planned for development
in the trade area.
Overview of Methodology
For purposes of estimating impacts in the relevant retail categories, this analysis utilizes a trade
area definition that includes the City of Poway, portions of the City of San Diego and
surrounding unincorporated area which is specific to the Poway Walmart. The analysis projects
total resident purchasing power within this trade area, and uses this projection of total demand
as the basis for determining the extent to which the proposed expansion project could be
supported in the trade area without negatively impacting existing businesses.
The study methodology includes the following major steps:
1. Estimate the current potential demand for retail sales in the trade area, based on
existing resident population;
2. Forecast future (11-year) growth in the amount of supportable retail sales, based on
projected increases in the trade area’s resident population;
3. Estimate supermarket demand by determining the portion of food sales that occur at
supermarkets versus all other types of food stores;
4. Estimate net supermarket demand after accounting for the capture of available demand
by the Walmart expansion;
5. Evaluate the impact of the project on average sales per square foot levels at the existing
supermarkets in the trade area; and
6. Evaluate the cumulative impact of the project combined with that of other planned
supermarket projects on average sales per square foot levels at the existing
supermarkets in the trade area.
Description of Trade Area
According to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) – the premier trade
association of the shopping center industry – a stand-alone supermarket would typically have a
primary trade area of 3 miles or less. However, given that the proposed grocery expansion is a
component of an existing Walmart store, its trade area will be equivalent to the trade area of the
Walmart store. The trade area of the Walmart store is likely to be significantly larger than the
trade area of a single, stand-alone grocery store, in part because of the wide variety of
merchandise offered by Walmart. The market area boundaries have been defined in terms of
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Retail Market Impact Analysis for Proposed Expansion of the Poway Walmart
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THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Retail Market Impact Analysis for Proposed Expansion of the Poway Walmart
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the polygon shown on Figure I-1 on page 4. The trade area boundaries include the Interstate-
15 (I-15) highway to the west, Scripps Poway Parkway to the south, Highland Valley road to the
north and northeast, and State Route 67 (SR-67) to the east.
TNDG defined the trade area based on the anticipated shopping patterns of residents, taking
into account the location of competitive existing retailers and transportation corridors. More
detailed information on the trade area design is provided in Section III-A.
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FIGURE I-1
Poway Walmart Retail Trade Area Boundary
Poway Walmart Retail Trade Area Boundary
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What this Study Provides
Since this study is being completed as part of the Environmental Impact Report (EIR) process
for the proposed project, it focuses strictly on the types of economic impacts that are defined as
significant by the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA). Specifically, per Section
15131(b) of the CEQA Guidelines, a project’s economic impacts on a community are considered
significant only if they can be tied to direct physical changes in the market area (i.e., physical
deterioration of existing retail centers/facilities). For purposes of this analysis prepared for this
project, The Natelson Dale Group, Inc. (TNDG) has established the following criteria to
determine if the project’s market impacts would be significant enough to create a lasting
physical change in a market area:
• Any diversion of sales from existing retail facilities would have to be severe enough to
result in business closings; and
• The business closures would have to be significant enough in scale (i.e., in terms of the
total square footage affected and/or the loss of key “anchor” tenants) and duration to
affect the viability of existing shopping centers or districts.
Within the above context, the analysis includes a description of the “baseline” condition of
existing retail facilities located in the trade area. In particular, TNDG completed a detailed
inventory of existing retail stores and vacancies.
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Retail Market Impact Analysis for Proposed Expansion of the Poway Walmart
Page 5
II. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
II-A. OVERVIEW OF EXISTING RETAIL MARKET IN THE POWAY RETAIL TRADE AREA
As part of this analysis, TNDG completed an inventory of existing retail space in the trade area
described above and summarized in Table II-1 below. The main purpose of this task was to
provide a quantitative and qualitative measure of the overall “health” of the retail climate in the
trade area. Detailed survey findings are provided in Appendix B.
Table II-1:
Inventory of Existing Retail Development
Poway Retail Trade Area
Square
Retail Category Feet
Apparel 118,331
General Merchandise 755,973
Home Furnishings 82,982
Specialty 390,502
Food 467,291
Eating and Drinking 567,369
Building Materials/Hardware 290,922
Auto Parts 25,244
Service Stations N/A
Services Space 728,730
Vacant Space 312,770
Total 3,740,114
Source: TNDG.
The retail inventory of the trade area is composed predominantly of small unanchored strip
centers, neighborhood-scale centers anchored primarily by drug stores and/or grocery stores,
and freestanding street-front retailers. Along with this type of space, The Carmel Mountain
Plaza and The Courtyard shopping center – located at Carmel Mountain Road and the I-15 –
function together as a regional-serving shopping center in the trade area (the two centers are
across the street from one another and total a combined 593,000 square feet of space).
As shown in the table, the trade area includes approximately 3.7 million square feet of retail and
services space, which is approximately 92% occupied. The existing vacancy rate is within the
range considered to be typical of a healthy retail market, where ideal rates would range from 5%
to 10% range for a market dominated by freestanding retail and neighborhood- and community-
scale shopping centers.
The Carmel Mountain Plaza center should be noted as the one shopping center in the trade with
a relatively high vacancy rate. The 462,000 square foot shopping center has approximately
71,600 square feet of vacant space, equating to an 18.2% vacancy rate. However, the bulk of
the vacant space (approximately 84,100 square feet, or 85% of the total) is a result of the recent
bankruptcy filing and subsequent liquidation of all Mervyn’s stores 2 . Thus, this is not indicative
2 There is also an existing unoccupied former Circuit City store. However, this store is in the process of being re-
configured and reoccupied by a Sprouts Farmers Market, which is expected to open by mid-2010.
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Retail Market Impact Analysis for Proposed Expansion of the Poway Walmart
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Retail Market Impact Analysis for Proposed Expansion of the Poway Walmart
Page 7
g
ongly 7 .
of negative local retail trade area conditions. In addition, this vacant store site is currently bein
marketed for retail reuse. The strength of the local market is illustrated by two new retailers
recently reoccupying relatively larger vacant retail spaces in the trade area. In the Poway
Promenade (located at the southwest corner of Poway Road and Pomerado Road), a 99 Cents
Only store recently reoccupied a former Millers Outpost apparel store 3 . Also, Best Buy recently
reoccupied a former Linens N’ Things store at The Courtyard center, located at Carmel
Mountain Road and the I-15 4 .
II-B. POTENTIAL IMPACT OF WALMART GROCERY AND FAST FOOD TENANT
COMPONENTS
It is TNDG’s conclusion that the proposed project’s grocery sales will not have significant
negative impacts on existing supermarkets. The analysis supporting this conclusion is
summarized below.
Project Description: For purposes of this analysis, it is assumed that the grocery component
of the existing Walmart would be expanded by a total of 54,706 square feet (39,831 square feet
of grocery sales area plus 14,875 square feet of grocery sales support, stockroom and ancillary
space). The expansion of the grocery area is larger than the overall expansion of the store
because the grocery expansion area will be accomplished both through conversion of floor area
currently used for sales of merchandise in non-grocery categories with the actual net expansion
of the store’s total area. TNDG projects that this supermarket space would generate sales levels
of $852 per square foot of sales area based on the national average for grocery sales in
Walmart Supercenters 5 , or the equivalent of $620 per square foot of total grocery space (i.e.,
including sales and non-sales space).
Evaluation of Existing Supermarkets: The trade area currently has 10 supermarkets with a
combined floor area estimated at 406,432 square feet. TNDG’s demand analysis indicates that
there is currently (year 2009) sufficient demand to support average supermarket sales volumes
in the trade area of $564 per square foot at all 10 supermarkets 6 . This is well above the
industry median for supermarkets in the U.S. of approximately $473 per square foot, suggesting
that the trade area’s existing supermarkets are performing relatively str
Projected Growth in Grocery Demand: Given the limited growth projected in the trade area
(see Table III-1 in Section III), total demand for supermarket sales is projected to increase only
slightly from $229.1 million in 2009 to $229.2 million in 2011, the assumed opening date of
proposed project. By 2020, total demand for supermarket sales in the trade area is projected to
reach $230.4 million (all projections are provided in 2009 dollars). Table II-2, below, provides
an estimate of the impact of the Walmart’s grocery sales in terms of potential reduction in the
sales per square foot volume at the 10 existing supermarkets. As shown on the table, sales at
existing supermarkets are projected to decrease to an average of $481 per square foot in 2011
as a result of the proposed Poway Walmart expansion.
3 The 99 Cents Only store opened on October 29, 2009.
4 The Best Buy store opened on November 13, 2009.
5 Based on data published in Progressive Grocer, The Super 50, May 2009.
6 For this calculation, TNDG has utilized the assumption that supermarket sales account for 86% of sales in the
overall Food category. This factor has been derived by TNDG based on numerous analyses of supermarket supply
and demand in comparable communities throughout California, and based on data we have reviewed from the State
Board of Equalization (for Poway and comparable trade areas), Claritas, and selected supermarket chains. 7 Based on data for neighborhood centers in the 2008 edition of the Urban Land Institute’s (ULI) Dollars & Cents of
Shopping Centers.
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Table II-2:
Potential Sales Impacts to Existing Supermarkets
Supermarket Component of Proposed Walmart Expansion
Poway Walmart Retail Trade Area
Description 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2020
Total Food Sales Demand $266,404 $266,672 $266,934 $267,202 $267,470 $267,873
Supermarket Share @ 86% $229,107 $229,338 $229,563 $229,794 $230,025 $230,371
Less Demand Absorbed by Proposed
Project 1/
--Walmart Expansion (54,706 SF) ($33,918) ($33,918) ($33,918) ($33,918) ($33,918)
Net Demand Available to Support Existing
Supermarkets $229,107 $195,420 $195,645 $195,876 $196,107 $196,453
Existing Supermarket Square Feet 2/ 406,432 406,432 406,432 406,432 406,432 406,432
Sales per Square Foot
Existing Supermarkets $564 $481 $481 $482 $483 $483
Source: TNDG; The Progressive Grocer, The Super 50, May 2009.
1/ Sales per square foot (gross area) assumptions:
Walmart: $620
2/ See Appendix B, Table B-2.
Conclusion Regarding Significance of Impact: It is unlikely that the development of the
supermarket component of the proposed Walmart expansion would cause any existing
supermarkets to close. As noted above and shown on Table II-2, although the proposed
supermarket component would result in transferred sales from existing supermarkets and a
reduction of potential sales levels from $564 per square foot to $481 per square foot (a 14.7%
reduction), average sales volumes at existing supermarkets would still be above the $473 per
square foot threshold in 2011 (the opening date of the proposed project).
It should also be noted that the $473 per square foot sales volume is figure is a relatively
aggressive benchmark factor (that is, it potentially overestimates potential impacts) for purposes
of estimating potential impacts to existing supermarkets, for the following two reasons:
1. Although the median sales performance for supermarkets in the U.S. is $473 per square
foot, the same figure for supermarkets in the Western U.S. is $418. Using the Western
U.S. region $418 per square foot sales figure as a benchmark factor would provide even
stronger evidence of the relative strength of the local market and the supermarkets’
ability to withstand competitive sales impacts from the proposed project.
2. To evaluate the “typical” sales volumes of California supermarkets, TNDG utilized a
proprietary database of chain-specific supermarket sales estimates provided by Trade
Dimensions International, Inc., a market research firm of The Nielsen Company. The
database, based on data for more than 3,100 individual stores, includes sales estimates
for 49 supermarket chains operating in California along with aggregate sales estimates
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Retail Market Impact Analysis for Proposed Expansion of the Poway Walmart
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for independent supermarkets 8 . According to this database, average sales per square
foot by chain ranges from $212 to $801 per square foot. For all chains combined, the
median and average sales per square foot measures are $385 and $412, respectively,
with a standard deviation of $133 per square foot. As indicated in the sales per square
foot estimates above, there is significant variability in sales volumes at individual
supermarkets, and evidence indicating that a number of stores (and entire chains) are
operating at well below the $473 threshold evaluated in this analysis. In fact, of the 50
grocery chains represented in the database (including the aggregated independent
category), 35, or 70% of the total, generate average sales volumes below $473 per
square foot. Further, more than half (54%) of the chains operate at sales volumes
below $400 per square foot, while 20% operate below $300 per square foot. These
data further suggest that the median U.S. sales figure is a relatively aggressive
benchmark for estimating potential store closures 9 .
Although the above data indicate that the market would be able to absorb the proposed
expansion without the closure of any supermarkets in the trade area, City staff has expressed
some concern that the nearby existing Vons store (located on 13438 Poway Road in the Poway
Town and Country neighborhood center) could be vulnerable to competitive impacts. This
concern is based on visual inspections of the store, which indicate that the store has a relatively
dated and “tired” appearance, and that customer traffic appears sparse relative to other
supermarkets in the trade area. Given that TNDG is not privy to the sales performance or
overall financial strength of individual existing supermarkets, it is not possible to reliably predict
if the existing Vons store would close as a result of increased competition from the proposed
expansion.
Although a potential supermarket vacancy would clearly be undesirable from the standpoint of
the commercial property owner, it is not a reasonably foreseeable outcome that urban decay
conditions would result. Urban decay is a potential consequence of a downward spiral of store
closures and long-term vacancies 10 . While urban decay is not defined under CEQA, it is
assumed to be indicated by significant deterioration of structures and/or their surroundings.
Such deterioration can occur when property owners reduce property maintenance activities
below that required to keep their properties in good condition. Property-owners are likely to
make reductions in maintenance under conditions where they see little likelihood of future
positive returns.
In areas where higher-than-desirable vacancy rates are expected to be temporary, property
owners are more likely to see the prospect of keeping properties leased at favorable rents.
Where vacancy rates are persistently high, property owners are more likely to have a
pessimistic view of the future and be prone to reducing property maintenance as a way to
reduce costs. Very high vacancy rates (over 25%) that persist for long periods of time are more
likely to lead to reduced maintenance expenditures and in turn to physical deterioration.
Retail Market Impact Analysis for Proposed Expansion of the Poway Walmart
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8 Trade Dimensions defines a “chain” as 11 or more stores; for supermarkets with fewer than 11 stores in California,
the estimates have been aggregated and treated as a single group.
9 It should be noted that the data provided by Trade Dimensions are sales estimates and not the supermarkets’ actual
sales volumes. However, TNDG has also evaluated similar sales estimates from Trade Dimensions in the form of
their Retail Performance Reports, which provide store-level sales estimates for individual trade areas. For trade
areas which TNDG has evaluated, the sales estimates in these reports are generally consistent with actual sales data
available from the California State Board of Equalization (BOE), suggesting that the Trade Dimensions’ sales
estimates are reasonably accurate. 10 As cited in the Bakersfield Citizens for Local Control v. City of Bakersfield (2004) 124 Cal. App 4th 1184, p 2.
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Store closures and vacancies, in and of themselves, do not meet the above criteria. While the
closure of a business is clearly a severe impact to the owners and employees of the firm, within
the context of CEQA it is only significant if it results in sustained vacancies which in turn result in
deterioration of the physical condition of the vacant building(s) and neighborhoods, or urban
decay. With the consolidation in the supermarket industry over the past several years, there are
many examples of neighborhood shopping centers that have lost supermarket anchor tenants
and have not suffered a significant deterioration of structures and/or their surroundings. Many
of these centers have either attracted new (non-supermarket) anchor tenants, sub-divided the
space for multiple retail users, or reconfigured the space for non-retail uses (examples of
successful re-tenanting and reuse of vacated retail space in the trade area are provided in
Section II-A on page 7). Thus, the closing of a supermarket anchor tenant does not necessarily
indicate that the shopping center will experience a downward spiral of store closures and long-
term vacancies.
Although this analysis primarily focuses on retail demand and potential impacts in the
supermarket category, Appendix C provides a supplemental retail demand analysis which
evaluates demand for new retail development in the non-grocery retail categories. As shown in
the appendix, the trade area could theoretically support an additional 268,000 square feet, over
and above existing levels, in what’s commonly called the shopper goods or GAFO (General
Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture/Appliances and Other/Specialty) categories. In addition, the
store is located squarely on the Poway Road commercial corridor with numerous commercial-
retail businesses nearby. These facts, combined, indicate that the store would be a good
candidate for some type of retail reuse if it were to close.
Impact of Proposed Project’s Restaurant Space: It is TNDG’s conclusion that expansion of
the Walmart’s fast food restaurant space is not likely to have significant impacts on existing
restaurant establishments.
The 503 square foot expansion represents less than 0.10% of the total square footage in the
Eating and Drinking retail category in the trade area. Assuming that the expanded space were
to achieve sales of $447 per square foot 11 , its sales would represent only 0.12% of total
estimated 2009 sales in the Eating and Drinking retail category in the trade area.
Further, the small increase in the food tenant’s space is not anticipated to significantly increase
sales volumes for the food tenant. Rather, it will enable the restaurant to operate more efficiently
and to provide more convenient seating for the establishment’s customers.
II-C. POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO OTHER RETAIL CATEGORIES
Given that this analysis is concerned with potential economic impacts to existing retailers, this
analysis does not specifically evaluate the auto repair or home and garden retail categories.
The proposed expansion would remove the store’s existing and tire & lube center and reduce
the floor area allocated to the outdoor garden center. Thus, it is possible that existing trade
area retailers in these categories would economically benefit from the proposed expansion, as
they would be facing less direct competition from the proposed expanded store.
As discussed above, the proposed expansion would reduce the store’s general merchandise
space by approximately 9,116 square feet. Therefore, this analysis does not evaluate potential
Retail Market Impact Analysis for Proposed Expansion of the Poway Walmart
Page 10
11 Retail Maxim, July, 2009. Average for fast food restaurants.
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
impacts to retailers in the GAFO 12 or shopper goods categories, given that actual floor area in
the expanded store in this category would be reduced. In addition, based on a review of
Walmart’s financial statements and other independent studies, TNDG is unaware of any
conclusive evidence that indicates the general merchandise component of Walmart Supercenter
stores generate higher sales volumes, on a per square foot basis, than stand-alone Walmart
discount stores. However, even if the proposed Supercenter did generate additional general
merchandise sales volumes over and above sales volumes at the existing store, it is TNDG’s
conclusion that these potential additional sales would not have significant impacts on existing
GAFO retailers. Based on TNDG’s expanded retail demand analysis, as discussed above and
shown in Appendix C, the market could theoretically support an additional 268,000 square feet
of GAFO space over and above existing levels. Thus, any potential additional GAFO sales from
the expanded Supercenter would likely absorb residual market demand that is not currently
being met in the local market.
Retail Market Impact Analysis for Proposed Expansion of the Poway Walmart
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12 “GAFO” is a retail industry acronym for the General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture, and Other/Specialty sales
categories. These categories correspond to the typical merchandise mix of a discount department store such as
Walmart.
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
II-D. CUMULATIVE IMPACTS OF PROJECTS PLANNED IN THE POWAY RETAIL TRADE
AREA
Whereas the above sections examine potential impacts strictly related to the proposed project,
this section evaluates the cumulative impacts to the market based on all known pending
supermarket development/expansion projects (including the proposed project evaluated in this
analysis) in the retail trade area. At the time of this writing, there are five additional planned
and/or pending commercial-retail projects in the trade area. Besides the proposed Walmart
expansion, there is one additional known planned and/or pending supermarket project – a
Sprouts Farmers Market scheduled to reoccupy the vacant Circuit City store in the Carmel
Ranch Plaza by mid-2010 – in the trade area. In addition, given the proposed project’s minimal
amount of new square feet of restaurant space, no cumulatively considerable restaurant
impacts are projected in the trade area. Table II-3, below, provides the name, location, square
feet, and status of each planned and/or pending commercial retail project.
Table II-3:
Planned and Pending Commercial Retail Projects
Poway Retail Trade Area
Project Location
New
Square
Feet
New
Grocery
Square
Footage
Status
Walmart Expansion 13425 Community Rd 36,969 54,706 Under Review
Walgreens 13394 Poway Rd 13,500 N/A Approved
In-N-Out Gregg Ct / Community Rd 3,600 N/A Approved
Slough I & II Parkway Summit* Scripps Poway Pkwy / Danielson Ct 20,000 N/A Planned
Restaurant Scripps Poway Pkwy / Stowe Dr 6,000 N/A Planned
Sprouts Farmers Market 11710 Carmel Mountain Rd 29,000 29,000 Approved
TOTAL 83,706
*Project is approved for up to 10,000 square feet of specialty retail and 10,000 square feet of delicatessen space.
Source: City of Poway, Planning Department; TNDG.
Based on the known planned and pending projects in the Food category, Table II-4, on the
following page, provides an analysis of cumulative impacts to existing trade area supermarkets.
This cumulative analysis follows the same process described in Section II-B above. After the
proposed expansion and the development of the Sprouts Farmers Market, TNDG projects that
sales volumes at existing supermarkets would decrease from an average of $564 per square
foot in 2009 to an average $449 in 2011.
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Retail Market Impact Analysis for Proposed Expansion of the Poway Walmart
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Table II-4:
Potential Cumulative Sales Impacts to Existing Supermarkets
Based on Opening of Planned and Pending Supermarkets
Poway Retail Trade Area
Description 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2020
Supermarket Demand 1/ $229,107 $229,338 $229,563 $229,794 $230,025 $230,371
Less Demand Absorbed by Proposed
Project 2/
--Walmart Expansion (54,706 SF) ($33,918) ($33,918) ($33,918) ($33,918) ($33,918)
Net Demand Available to Support Existing
Supermarkets $229,107 $195,420 $195,645 $195,876 $196,107 $196,453
Other Planned Supermarkets (Sq. Ft.)
Sprouts Farmers Market 29,000
Existing + Planned Supermarket Sq. Ft. 3/ 406,432 435,432 435,432 435,432 435,432 435,432
Sales per Square Foot
Existing Supermarkets $564 $449 $449 $450 $450 $451
Source: TNDG; The Progressive Grocer, The Super 50, May 2009.
1/ See Table II-2 above.
2/ Sales per square foot (gross area) assumptions:
Walmart: $620
3/ See Appendix B, Table B-2.
While the combined projects would result in a sustained reduction in the existing supermarkets’
sales potentials in the trade area, the reduction in volumes is not likely to be severe enough to
result in the closure of existing stores, for the following reasons.
1. It is recognized that the median U.S. sales figure of $473 per square foot does not
necessarily reflect a break-even threshold for all supermarkets. Since the $473 per
square foot figure reflects the median sales figure, by definition half of all supermarkets
are operating below this level, and it is known that some supermarket chains, nationally,
operate at substantially lower sales levels than the median. In addition, as indicated in
Section II-B, the median regional (for the Western U.S.) sales figure is $418. Average
sales volumes for supermarkets in the trade area would still be above this benchmark
factor. Moreover, as discussed on pages 8 to 9, many supermarket chains based in
California operate at lower sales volumes than the projected $449 per square foot.
2. The cumulative analysis assumes that the pending Sprouts Farmers Market trade area
will be identical to the proposed project evaluated in this analysis because it is located in
the Poway Retail Trade Area. More realistically, however, this store will have its own
unique trade area, which will only partially overlap with the trade area evaluated in this
analysis. For example, being located on the western border of the trade area, the
pending Sprouts Farmers market will likely draw some market support from west of the
trade area boundaries, including the residential communities just west of the I-15
freeway.
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Retail Market Impact Analysis for Proposed Expansion of the Poway Walmart
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Retail Market Impact Analysis for Proposed Expansion of the Poway Walmart
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II-E. POTENTIAL FOR URBAN DECAY
As discussed in Sections II-B and II-D, no supermarket closures are projected under the project-
specific analysis or the cumulative analysis. Although the potential reduction in supermarket
sales volumes projected in the previous sections would clearly be undesirable from the
standpoint of existing supermarket owners, it is TNDG’s conclusion that it is not reasonably
foreseeable that urban decay conditions would result from completion of the project alone or in
combination with the other planned projects in the trade area. However, even in the event a
supermarket were to close as a result of competitive sales impacts, this would not result in
urban decay due to strong reuse potentials of any vacant supermarket in the trade area, as
discussed on pages 9 to 10.
As noted in Section II-A, the Carmel Mountain Plaza has a relatively high vacancy rate with one
existing large vacant space. The space was previously occupied by Mervyn’s. Given that this
space does not have an appropriate configuration for use as a supermarket, in addition to the
regional orientation of the center, it is unlikely that the Walmart expansion will cause any delay
in its ultimate reuse. The Mervyn’s chain recently filed bankruptcy and subsequently closed all
its stores nationwide. While this may be in part due to economic conditions nationwide, it is not
indicative of any negative conditions particular to the local (i.e., Poway Retail Trade Area) retail
market. Further, as the space is being marketed for reuse, it is highly likely that the property
owner will maintain its physical condition at all times.
Urban decay is a potential consequence of a downward spiral of store closures and long-term
vacancies 13 . While urban decay is not defined under CEQA, it is assumed to be indicated by
significant deterioration of structures and/or their surroundings. Such deterioration can occur
when property owners reduce property maintenance activities below that required to keep their
properties in good condition. Property owners are likely to make reductions in maintenance
under conditions where they see little likelihood of future positive returns due to prolonged
vacancy.
Given the conclusion by TNDG that no store closures are likely to occur as a result of the
project, it is unlikely that owners of existing occupied retail space will allow their properties to
physically deteriorate. While the Carmel Mountain Plaza has a relatively high vacancy rate with
one large vacant space, the development of the project is not anticipated to have any negative
effect on the reuse of this space and will not contribute to it falling into a state of urban decay.
13 As cited in the Bakersfield Citizens for Local Control v. City of Bakersfield (2004) 124 Cal. App 4th 1184, p 2.
III. POWAY RETAIL TRADE AREA DEMAND ANALYSIS
This section examines potential retail demand associated with the population residing in the
market area that would be served by the proposed project and forecasts future growth in retail
demand based on adopted projections of population growth.
III-A. MARKET AREA BOUNDARIES
According to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) – the premier trade
association of the shopping center industry – a stand-alone supermarket would typically have a
primary trade area of 3 miles or less. However, the proposed project would create a
“supercenter” (combining a general merchandise store with a full-scale supermarket) and would
therefore be expected to draw consumers from a larger trade area (consistent with the typical
trade area for a community-scale facility). Reflecting this “dual” characteristic of a supercenter,
the market area boundaries have been defined in terms of the polygon shown on Figure III-1 on
the following page. The market area boundaries include the Interstate-15 (I-15) highway to the
west, Scripps Poway Parkway to the south, Highland Valley road to the north and northeast,
and State Route 67 (SR-67) to the west. The trade area is referred to herein as the Poway
Retail Trade Area (PRTA).
TNDG defined the PRTA based on the anticipated shopping patterns of residents, taking into
account the location of competitive existing retailers (including the proximity of other existing
Walmart stores) and transportation corridors.
The trade area corresponds to the following census tracts in San Diego County.
170.06 170.15 170.39 170.49
170.07 170.19 170.4 170.5
170.09 170.2 170.41 170.21
170.1 170.26 170.42
170.14 170.38 170.48
See Figure III-1 on the following page for a map of the trade area boundaries.
The proposed project may draw some shoppers from beyond the trade area boundaries
evaluated in this analysis, based on some anecdotal evidence that residents west of the I-15
and as far east as the City of Ramona patronize the existing Walmart store 14 . However,
expanding the trade area to include these communities would spread potential sales impacts
across a larger number of supermarkets, and thus dilute any potential competitive impacts to
existing supermarkets. For purposes of CEQA, it is appropriate to be relatively more
conservative in the trade area design, in which potential sales impacts would be concentrated
across a smaller number of supermarkets. With this approach, the analysis errors on the side of
overestimating, rather than underestimating, potential competitive impacts.
14 Information provided by City staff.
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Retail Market Impact Analysis for Proposed Expansion of the Poway Walmart
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FIGURE III-1
Poway Walmart Retail Trade Area Boundary
Poway Walmart Retail Trade Area Boundary
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III-B. HOUSEHOLD AND INCOME LEVELS
The number of households in the PRTA is projected as follows:
Table III-1:
Household Projections by Year
Poway Retail Trade Area
Market
Area
Estimated
2009
Households
Projected
2011
Households
Projected
2013
Households
Projected
2015
Households
Projected
2017
Households
Projected
2020
Households
PRTA 37,713 37,751 37,788 37,826 37,864 37,921
Source: Claritas, San Diego County Association of Governments (SANDAG); TNDG.
The estimated number of existing (2009) households in the PRTA is from Claritas, a national
demographic research services firm. To project future growth (2010 onward) in the number of
households, TNDG has applied the growth rate for each 2009-2020 period forecasted by the
San Diego County Association of Governments (SANDAG) for the census tracts corresponding
to the trade area boundaries. The above projections reflect an annual growth rate of 0.05%
between 2009 and 2020.
Average household income levels in the trade area are estimated as follows:
Table III-2:
Average Household Income
Poway Retail Trade Area
Market Area 2009 HH Income
PRTA $129,448
Source: Claritas, TNDG
The indicated estimates of household income were obtained from Claritas and have been
adjusted by TNDG based on data from the Center for the Continuing Study of the California
Economy (CCSCE). According to CCSCE, the U.S. Census (and derivative data sources such
as Claritas) underreports money income by an average of 13%. To correct for this
underreporting, we have adjusted the Claritas household income estimates by dividing them by
a factor of 0.87.
Based on the 0.87 adjustment factor (derived from CCSCE, as explained above), TNDG
estimates the average household income level for the overall trade area at $129,448 ($112,620
/ 0.87 = $129,448). In addition, the analysis conservatively assumes that the average
household income levels in the trade area will remain constant in real dollar terms.
III-C. RETAIL SALES DEMAND
Household and income characteristics are the primary determinants of the potential dollars
available for purchases of goods and services in the market area. The analysis assumes that
trade area residents will, on average, spend 32.1% of their income on retail purchases. This
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC.
Retail Market Impact Analysis for Proposed Expansion of the Poway Walmart
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factor is based on data from the National Consumer Expenditure Survey (CES) for households
with comparable income levels to those in the PRTA 15 .
Table III-3:
Income and Retail Demand
Poway Retail Trade Area
Market Area 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2020
PRTA $4,881,872 $4,886,791 $4,891,581 $4,896,500 $4,901,419 $4,908,798
Total Income $4,881,872 $4,886,791 $4,891,581 $4,896,500 $4,901,419 $4,908,798
PRTA $1,567,081 $1,568,660 $1,570,198 $1,571,777 $1,573,356 $1,575,724
Total Retail Demand $1,567,081 $1,568,660 $1,570,198 $1,571,777 $1,573,356 $1,575,724
Source: TNDG
III-D. DISTRIBUTION OF RETAIL EXPENDITURES
Projected retail demand from market area residents is disaggregated into various retail
categories based upon retail expenditure patterns observed in California counties with similar
income characteristics as the trade area. The basic distribution of retail sales by retail category
is projected as follows in Table III-4.
Table III-4:
Distribution of Retail Sales by Category
Poway Retail Trade Area
Retail Category Distribution
Shopper Goods:
Apparel 5.0%
General Merchandise 15.0%
Furniture/Appliances 4.0%
Specialty 14.0%
Subtotal 38.0%
Convenience Goods:
Food / Liquor 17.0%
Eating and Drinking 12.0%
Subtotal 29.0%
Heavy Commercial Goods:
Building Materials/Hardware 7.0%
Auto Dealers 16.0%
Service Stations 10.0%
Subtotal 33.0%
Total 100.0%
Source: State Board of Equalization; TNDG
15 This percentage is based on data from the National Consumer Expenditure Survey (CES), Bureau of Labor
Statistics (BLS), and reflects the fact that the share of income spent on retail goods varies based on household
income levels in a market area.
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Retail Market Impact Analysis for Proposed Expansion of the Poway Walmart
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III-E. DEMAND FOR GROCERY AND EATING AND DRINKING SALES
This section evaluates the demand for Food and Eating and Drinking sales in the PRTA, along
with potential sales impacts to existing supermarkets in the trade area. Table III-5, below,
provides a forecast of total demand in the Food and Eating and Drinking categories from 2009
to 2020.
Table III-5:
Potential Demand for Food and Eating and Drinking Categories
Poway Retail Trade Area
in thousands of constant dollars
Retail Demand by Category 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2020
Total Retail Demand $1,567,081 $1,568,660 $1,570,198 $1,571,777 $1,573,356 $1,575,724
Food @ 17% $266,404 $266,672 $266,934 $267,202 $267,470 $267,873
Eating and Drinking @ 12% $188,050 $188,239 $188,424 $188,613 $188,803 $189,087
Source: TNDG
Table III-6 below provides a forecast of total demand for supermarket sales in the PRTA from
2009 to 2020. Based on an analysis of available taxable sales data from the State Board of
Equalization (BOE), TNDG estimates that the 10 existing supermarkets in the PRTA currently
capture approximately 86% of the overall Food category sales. The balance of sales in the
overall Food category accrues to smaller convenience and specialty markets.
Table III-6:
Demand for Supermarket Sales and
Estimate of Sales per Square Foot
Poway Retail Trade Area
in thousands of constant dollars
Description 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2020
Total Food Sales Demand $266,404 $266,672 $266,934 $267,202 $267,470 $267,873
Supermarket Share @ 86% $229,107 $229,338 $229,563 $229,794 $230,025 $230,371
Less Demand Absorbed by Proposed
Project 1/
--Walmart Expansion (54,706 SF) ($33,918) ($33,918) ($33,918) ($33,918) ($33,918)
Net Demand Available to Support Existing
Supermarkets $229,107 $195,420 $195,645 $195,876 $196,107 $196,453
Existing Supermarket Square Feet 2/ 406,432 406,432 406,432 406,432 406,432 406,432
Sales per Square Foot
Existing Supermarkets $564 $481 $481 $482 $483 $483
Source: TNDG; The Progressive Grocer, The Super 50, May 2009.
1/ Sales per square foot (gross area) assumptions:
Walmart: $620
2/ See Appendix B.
APPENDIX A:
RETAIL DEMAND ANALYSIS
POWAY RETAIL TRADE AREA
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)
(
$
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3
,
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1
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(
$
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t
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Sa
l
e
s
P
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t
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x
i
s
t
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n
g
S
u
p
e
r
m
a
r
k
e
t
s
$
5
6
4
$
4
8
1
$
4
8
1
$
4
8
2
$
4
8
3
$
4
8
3
1/
S
a
l
e
s
p
e
r
s
q
u
a
r
e
f
o
o
t
(
g
r
o
s
s
a
r
e
a
)
a
s
s
u
m
p
t
i
o
n
s
:
W
a
l
-
M
a
r
t
$
6
2
0
So
u
r
c
e
:
T
N
D
G
;
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r
o
g
r
e
s
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v
e
G
r
o
c
e
r
,
S
u
p
e
r
5
0
,
2
0
0
9
.
A-
6
Ta
b
l
e
A
-
7
Po
t
e
n
t
i
a
l
S
a
l
e
s
I
m
p
a
c
t
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t
o
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g
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u
p
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m
a
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k
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t
s
-
C
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A
T
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A
N
A
L
Y
S
I
S
Po
w
a
y
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e
t
a
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r
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A
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e
a
Ex
p
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e
d
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n
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l
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m
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a
b
l
e
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t
a
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p
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(
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s
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s
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e
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:
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r
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$
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8
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h
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r
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l
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.
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t
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r
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9
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g
+
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l
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t
S
p
a
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e
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q
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4
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l
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9
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l
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s
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s
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r
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)
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s
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m
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;
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p
e
r
5
0
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0
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.
A-
7
APPENDIX B:
RETAIL INVENTORY
POWAY RETAIL TRADE AREA
Ta
b
l
e
B
-
1
In
v
e
n
t
o
r
y
o
f
E
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T
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M
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D
D
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v
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M
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6
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l
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d
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y
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3
1
3
Va
c
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t
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R
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S
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c
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1
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l
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3
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2
B-
1
RE
T
A
I
L
S
Q
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A
R
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SH
O
P
P
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C
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T
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B
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Hu
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1
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B-
3
2
Table B-2
Poway Retail Trade Area
Inventory of Existing Supermarkets
Square
StoreAddressFeet
Baron's Marketplace11828 Rancho Bernardo Rd17,500
Albertsons12475 Rancho Bernardo Rd52,000
Vons11986 Bernardo Plaza Dr51,088
Henry's15727 Bernardo Heights Parkway31,300
Albertsons14837 Pomerado Rd44,686
Ralph's11875 Carmel Mountain Rd41,201
Vons13438 Poway Rd39,857
Henry's13536 Poway Rd25,000
Stater Bros13589 Poway Rd47,500
Vons10675 Scripps Poway Pkwy56,300
Total406,432
B-33
APPENDIX C:
RETAIL DEMAND ANALYSIS (EXPANDED RETAIL CATEGORIES)
POWAY RETAIL TRADE AREA
Ta
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M E M O R A N D U M
TO: LSA Associates
DATE: January 11, 2010
ATTN: Renee Escario
FROM: The Natelson Dale Group, Inc. (TNDG) FILE: #3948
SUBJECT: PROPOSED POWAY WALMART EXPANSION—
ANALYSIS OF POTENTIAL IMPACT ON RESIDENTIAL
FORECLOSURE ACTIVITY
During the EIR scoping process for the proposed Walmart expansion, concerns were raised that
the proposed project could potentially cause an increase in residential foreclosure activity in
Poway. For purposes of evaluating the validity of these concerns within the context of the EIR,
the issue has been framed in terms of the following questions:
1. Would the proposed project cause urban decay due to competitive impacts on other
shopping centers in the trade area, and thus cause residential neighborhoods proximate to
the urban decay to become less desirable?
2. Based on current trends in the residential real estate market, is Poway especially
vulnerable to foreclosure activity?
3. Do foreclosed properties in Poway tend to remain vacant for extended periods of time
and thus become subject to physical deterioration?
Our conclusions relative to these three questions are summarized below. Additional analysis and
documentation regarding the project’s potential impacts on foreclosure activity have been
provided by LSA Associates under separate cover.
Summary of Conclusions
Would the proposed project cause urban decay due to competitive impacts on other shopping
centers in the trade area, and thus cause residential neighborhoods proximate to the urban
decay to become less desirable?
The proposed project’s potential to cause urban decay in competing commercial areas is
addressed in detailed in a separate study prepared as part of the EIR (“urban decay study”). The
urban decay study concludes that the project’s competitive impacts would not be severe enough
to cause urban decay in the trade area. Since there would be no urban decay impact, there would
be no subsequent impacts to proximate residential areas.
24835 E. La Palma Ave., Suite I . Yorba Linda, California 92887
Phone: (714) 692-9596 . Fax: (714) 692-9597
LSA Associates
December 22, 2009
Page 2 of 8
Based on current trends in the residential real estate market, is Poway especially vulnerable to
foreclosure activity?
It is acknowledged that due to the “bubble” in the residential housing market and the subsequent
severe economic downturn, many communities across the nation have experienced a sharp
increase in the number residential foreclosures over the past several years. To evaluate the
extent to which Poway is vulnerable to this trend, TNDG analyzed the following datasets
characterizing the distressed housing market:
• Notices of Default (NOD);
• Foreclosures; and
• REO 1 Resales.
These data were evaluated by quarter for the period from 2005 through the third quarter of 2009.
In order to place the data for Poway in context, the local trends were compared to county and
state level benchmarks. The data are summarized in absolute terms on Table 1. Table 2 shows
the numbers of NOD’s, foreclosures and REO resales as percentages of the total housing stock in
each geographic area (i.e., Poway, San Diego County and California). These data are also
displayed graphically in Figures 1 and 2.
The data indicate that Poway is significantly less vulnerable to foreclosures than San Diego
County and California overall:
• During the 4¾-year period evaluated, the number of NOD’s statewide amounted to
approximately 12.6% of the total owner-occupied dwelling units in the state. The
percentage in San Diego County was very similar at 12.5%. The percentage in Poway
was significantly lower at 7.4%.
• The variation between Poway and the county and state level trends was even more
significant for actual foreclosures. The number of foreclosures statewide during this
period amounted to approximately 5.2% of the total owner-occupied dwelling units in the
state. The percentage in San Diego County was also 5.2%. The percentage in Poway
was significantly lower at 2.5%.
From the above data, two conclusions can be reached:
1. There is a significantly lower incidence of Notices of Default (the first step in the
foreclosure process) in Poway than in San Diego County and California.
2. Even among properties that do fall into NOD status, the portion proceeding to actual
foreclosures is substantially lower in Poway than in the county and the state.
1 REO = Real Estate Owned by bank or “bank-owned” properties.
24835 E. La Palma Ave., Suite I . Yorba Linda, California 92887
Phone: (714) 692-9596 . Fax: (714) 692-9597
LSA Associates
December 22, 2009
Page 3 of 8
Table 1:
Notices of Defaults, Foreclosures, & REO Resales: 2005‐2009
State of California, San Diego County, City of Poway
Notices of Default Foreclosures REO Resales
Period CA
SD
County Poway CA
SD
County Poway CA
SD
County Poway
2005Q1 15,065 1,041 8 748 20 716 16
2005Q2 13,139 983 14 689 43 701 23 1
2005Q3 12,587 939 13 797 55 1 526 30
2005Q4 15,267 1,250 17 800 93 2 437 26 1
2006Q1 19,854 1,735 22 1,247 153 1 507 48 1
2006Q2 22,410 2,010 26 1,954 293 2 793 110 1
2006Q3 23,752 2,261 26 3,544 453 6 903 126 2
2006Q4 32,160 2,937 38 6,231 723 11 1,311 198 1
2007Q1 45,692 3,781 58 11,342 1,200 13 2,698 448 8
2007Q2 53,018 4,274 45 18,120 1,947 22 4,871 749 12
2007Q3 70,825 5,477 54 24,460 2,156 18 6,878 971 11
2007Q4 79,641 6,011 55 32,097 2,330 23 10,751 1,199 18
2008Q1 111,048 8,763 95 48,154 3,665 36 18,049 1,692 22
2008Q2 118,839 9,246 86 64,059 4,845 42 35,536 2,963 31
2008Q3 91,213 6,849 64 80,395 5,844 43 50,027 3,941 41
2008Q4 73,844 5,442 57 47,184 3,635 41 55,960 4,364 29
2009Q1 134,341 10,035 102 43,726 3,063 33 52,452 3,928 37
2009Q2 123,456 9,799 111 46,754 3,553 28 56,721 4,102 36
2009Q3 109,640 8,515 131 49,961 3,599 26 49,018 3,456 35
Total 1,165,791 91,348 1,022 482,262 37,670 348 348,855 28,390 287
Source: Dataquick; California Department of Finance; The Natelson Dale Group, Inc. (TNDG)
24835 E. La Palma Ave., Suite I . Yorba Linda, California 92887
Phone: (714) 692-9596 . Fax: (714) 692-9597
LSA Associates
December 22, 2009
Page 4 of 8
Table 2:
Notices of Defaults, Foreclosures, & REO Resales: 2005‐2009
As a Percent of the Total Housing Stock2
State of California, San Diego County, City of Poway
Notices of Default Foreclosures REO Resales
Period CA
SD
County Poway CA
SD
County Poway CA
SD
County Poway
2005Q1 0.17% 0.15% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
2005Q2 0.15% 0.14% 0.10% 0.01% 0.01% 0.00% 0.01% 0.00% 0.01%
2005Q3 0.14% 0.13% 0.10% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
2005Q4 0.17% 0.18% 0.12% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01%
2006Q1 0.22% 0.24% 0.16% 0.01% 0.02% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01%
2006Q2 0.25% 0.28% 0.19% 0.02% 0.04% 0.01% 0.01% 0.02% 0.01%
2006Q3 0.26% 0.31% 0.19% 0.04% 0.06% 0.04% 0.01% 0.02% 0.01%
2006Q4 0.35% 0.41% 0.28% 0.07% 0.10% 0.08% 0.01% 0.03% 0.01%
2007Q1 0.50% 0.52% 0.42% 0.12% 0.17% 0.09% 0.03% 0.06% 0.06%
2007Q2 0.58% 0.59% 0.33% 0.20% 0.27% 0.16% 0.05% 0.10% 0.09%
2007Q3 0.77% 0.75% 0.39% 0.27% 0.30% 0.13% 0.07% 0.13% 0.08%
2007Q4 0.87% 0.83% 0.40% 0.35% 0.32% 0.17% 0.12% 0.16% 0.13%
2008Q1 1.20% 1.20% 0.69% 0.52% 0.50% 0.26% 0.19% 0.23% 0.16%
2008Q2 1.28% 1.27% 0.63% 0.69% 0.66% 0.31% 0.38% 0.41% 0.23%
2008Q3 0.98% 0.94% 0.47% 0.87% 0.80% 0.31% 0.54% 0.54% 0.30%
2008Q4 0.80% 0.75% 0.42% 0.51% 0.50% 0.30% 0.60% 0.60% 0.21%
2009Q1 1.44% 1.37% 0.74% 0.47% 0.42% 0.24% 0.56% 0.54% 0.27%
2009Q2 1.32% 1.34% 0.81% 0.50% 0.48% 0.20% 0.61% 0.56% 0.26%
2009Q3 1.18% 1.16% 0.95% 0.54% 0.49% 0.19% 0.53% 0.47% 0.25%
Total 12.6% 12.5% 7.4% 5.2% 5.2% 2.5% 3.8% 3.9% 2.1%
Source: Dataquick; California Department of Finance; TNDG.
2 For purposes of calculating the above percentages, the denominator is TNDG’s estimate of the total number of
owner-occupied dwelling units in each geographic area at the beginning of each calendar year. The estimated
numbers of owner-occupied dwelling units are based on California Department of Finance estimates of the numbers
of single-family detached units, single-family attached units and mobile homes by year.
24835 E. La Palma Ave., Suite I . Yorba Linda, California 92887
Phone: (714) 692-9596 . Fax: (714) 692-9597
LSA Associates
December 22, 2009
Page 5 of 8
24835 E. La Palma Ave., Suite I . Yorba Linda, California 92887
Phone: (714) 692-9596 . Fax: (714) 692-9597
Figure 1:
Notices of Default as a % of the Total Housing Stock
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
1.00%
1.20%
1.40%
1.60%2 005Q1 2 005Q2 2 0 05Q3 2 0 05Q4 2 0 06Q1 2 006 Q 2 2 006 Q 3 2 00 6Q 4 2 007Q1 2 007Q2 2 007Q3 2 0 07Q 4 2 0 08Q1 2 0 08Q2 2 008Q3 2 008 Q 4 2 009 Q 1 2009Q2 2009Q3
CA SD County Poway
Figure 2:
Foreclosures as a % of the Total Housing Stock
0.00%
0.10%
0.20%
0.30%
0.40%
0.50%
0.60%
0.70%
0.80%
0.90%
1.00%2005Q1 20 05Q 2 20 05Q 3 20 05Q4 2006Q1 2006Q2 2006Q3 20 06Q4 20 07Q1 2007 Q 2 2007 Q 3 2007 Q 4 2 008Q1 2 008Q2 2 008Q3 200 8Q 4 200 9Q 1 200 9Q 2 2009Q3
CA SD County Poway
LSA Associates
December 22, 2009
Page 6 of 8
Do foreclosed properties in Poway tend to remain vacant for extended periods of time and thus
become subject to physical deterioration?
In addition to showing significantly fewer signs of housing distress relative to the county and the
state, Poway also appears to be relatively more resilient in terms of the resale rate of REO (bank-
owned) properties. Table 3 compares the cumulative number of foreclosures and to the
cumulative number of REO resales during the evaluated time period for all three geographies.
As shown in the table, approximately 82.5% of foreclosures have been resold in Poway between
2005 (Q1) and 2009 (Q3), compared to 75.4% in the County and 72.3% in the State during this
time period. These data suggest that home purchasers view Poway as a desirable community,
and that the foreclosed homes are sold faster in the City relative to the County and the State. The
cumulative percent of foreclosures resold is also displayed graphically in Figure 3 on the
following page.
Table 3:
Cumulative Foreclosures and REO resales: 2005‐2009
State of California, San Diego County, City of Poway
California San Diego County City of Poway
Period
Fore‐
closures
REO
Resales % Resold
Fore‐
closures
REO
Resales % Resold
Fore‐
closures
REO
Resales % Resold
2005Q1 748 716 95.7%20 16 80.0%0 0 N/A
2005Q2 1,437 1,417 98.6%63 39 61.9%0 1 N/A
2005Q3 2,234 1,943 87.0%118 69 58.5%1 1 100.0%
2005Q4 3,034 2,380 78.4%211 95 45.0%3 2 66.7%
2006Q1 4,281 2,887 67.4%364 143 39.3%4 3 75.0%
2006Q2 6,235 3,680 59.0%657 253 38.5%6 4 66.7%
2006Q3 9,779 4,583 46.9%1,110 379 34.1%12 6 50.0%
2006Q4 16,010 5,894 36.8%1,833 577 31.5%23 7 30.4%
2007Q1 27,352 8,592 31.4%3,033 1,025 33.8%36 15 41.7%
2007Q2 45,472 13,463 29.6%4,980 1,774 35.6%58 27 46.6%
2007Q3 69,932 20,341 29.1%7,136 2,745 38.5%76 38 50.0%
2007Q4 102,029 31,092 30.5%9,466 3,944 41.7%99 56 56.6%
2008Q1 150,183 49,141 32.7%13,131 5,636 42.9%135 78 57.8%
2008Q2 214,242 84,677 39.5%17,976 8,599 47.8%177 109 61.6%
2008Q3 294,637 134,704 45.7%23,820 12,540 52.6%220 150 68.2%
2008Q4 341,821 190,664 55.8%27,455 16,904 61.6%261 179 68.6%
2009Q1 385,547 243,116 63.1%30,518 20,832 68.3%294 216 73.5%
2009Q2 432,301 299,837 69.4%34,071 24,934 73.2%322 252 78.3%
2009Q3 482,262 348,855 72.3%37,670 28,390 75.4%348 287 82.5%
Source: Dataquick; TNDG.
24835 E. La Palma Ave., Suite I . Yorba Linda, California 92887
Phone: (714) 692-9596 . Fax: (714) 692-9597
LSA Associates
December 22, 2009
Page 7 of 8
Figure 3:
Cumulative Percent of Foreclosed Properties Resold
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%2 006Q4 2 0 07Q1 2 007Q2 2007Q3 2 00 7Q 4 2 008Q1 2 008Q2 2 0 08Q 3 2 008Q4 2 0 09Q1 2 009 Q 2 2009Q3
CA SD County Poway
Overall Conclusion
TNDG does not believe that the proposed project will directly or indirectly impact the rate of
residential foreclosures in Poway. This conclusion is based on the following findings:
• The proposed project would not result in urban decay (see detailed analysis of this issue
in TNDG’s urban decay study).
• Moreover, Poway appears to be relatively resistant to foreclosure activity in general.
Even during the recent spike in foreclosures nationally (which according to the data in
Table 2 above peaked in the third quarter of 2008), the rate of foreclosures in Poway was
relatively low 3 . During the 4¾-year period from 2005 through third quarter 2009, a total
of 2.5% of owner-occupied homes were foreclosed in Poway, compared to 5.2% at the
county and state levels.
• Most importantly from a CEQA standpoint, properties that are foreclosed in Poway
appear to be highly re-saleable. They are therefore unlikely to remain vacant for
extended periods of time and thus become physically deteriorated over the long term.
The issue of the physical maintenance of bank-owned properties is further evaluated by
LSA Associates under separate cover.
3 It should be noted that some housing market analysts believe that foreclosure rates may increase on a national basis
in 2010 for the following reasons: 1) various types of exotic mortgages that will reset to fully-amortizing loans, 2)
poor initial results from loan modification programs, such as the President’s Home Affordable Modification
Program (HAMP), and 3) continuing weakness in the labor market. However, based on recent historical trends, the
City, on a relative basis, will not likely suffer as much foreclosure activity.
24835 E. La Palma Ave., Suite I . Yorba Linda, California 92887
Phone: (714) 692-9596 . Fax: (714) 692-9597
LSA Associates
December 22, 2009
Page 8 of 8
24835 E. La Palma Ave., Suite I . Yorba Linda, California 92887
Phone: (714) 692-9596 . Fax: (714) 692-9597
Please feel free to contact us directly if you have any questions about our conclusions.
Roger Dale, Managing Principal
Alan Levenson, Senior Associate
LSA ASSOCIATES, INC.
20 EXECUTIVE PARK, SUITE 200
IRVINE, CALIFORNIA 92614
949.553.0666 TEL
949.553.8076 FAX
BERKELEY
CARLSBAD
FORT COLLINS
FRESNO
PALM SPRINGS
POINT RICHMOND
RIVERSIDE
ROCKLIN
SAN LUIS OBISPO
SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO
01/12/10 «P:\PWY0901\Technical Info-Reports\Residential Urban Decay Memo ELH.doc»
MEMORANDUM
DATE: January 12, 2010
TO: Oda Audish, Associate Planner, City of Poway
FROM: Renee Escario, Senior Planner
SUBJECT: Walmart Expansion Project, Residential Urban Decay
During the Environmental Impact Report (EIR) scoping process for the Poway Walmart Expansion
project, concerns were raised that the proposed project could potentially result in indirect effects on
residential urban decay within the City of Poway. In response, The Natelson Dale Group (TNDG)
prepared an analysis of potential project effects on residential foreclosure activity. This memorandum
provides further evaluation of potential physical deterioration of bank-owned residential properties.
The TNDG analysis determined that the City of Poway is relatively resistant to foreclosure activity,
as the rate of foreclosures within the City is much lower than the rate within San Diego County and
the State as a whole. Further, the foreclosed properties within Poway, on average, resold more quickly
than those in the County and the State. The TNDG analysis also indicates that foreclosure activity
throughout the State (including Poway) appears to have peaked in the third quarter of 2008. As the
real estate market gradually recovers and fewer bank-owned properties are on the market (less
competition for sales), it is anticipated that overall bank-owned properties will continue to resell more
quickly.
Since this evaluation is being completed as part of the EIR process for the proposed Poway Walmart
Expansion project, it focuses strictly on the types of economic impacts that are defined as significant
by the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA). Applicable portions of Sections 15131(a) and
(b) of the CEQA Guidelines are provided below.
15131. Economic and Social Effects
(a) Economic or social effects of a project shall not be treated as significant effects on the
environment. An EIR may trace a chain of cause and effect from a proposed decision on a project
through anticipated economic or social changes resulting from the project to physical changes
caused in turn by the economic or social changes. The intermediate economic or social changes
need not be analyzed in any detail greater than necessary to trace the chain of cause and effect.
The focus of the analysis shall be on the physical changes.
(b) Economic or social effects of a project may be used to determine the significance of physical
changes caused by the project. For example, if the construction of a new freeway or rail line
divides an existing community, the construction would be the physical change, but the social
effect on the community would be the basis for determining that the effect would be significant.
As an additional example, if the construction of a road and the resulting increase in noise in an
area disturbed existing religious practices in the area, the disturbance of the religious practices
LSA ASSOCIATES, INC.
01/12/10 «P:\PWY0901\Technical Info-Reports\Residential Urban Decay Memo ELH.doc» 2
could be used to determine that the construction and use of the road and the resulting noise would
be significant effects on the environment. The religious practices would need to be analyzed only
to the extent to show that the increase in traffic and noise would conflict with the religious
practices.
As such, residential foreclosures and vacancies, in and of themselves, are not a significant
environmental issue. They only become a CEQA issue if they result from and lead to physical effects
(i.e., physical deterioration resulting from a physical impact on the environment from the proposed
project).
To determine whether foreclosed properties within Poway are subject to physical deterioration, LSA
Associates, Inc. (LSA) conducted a windshield survey of 37 bank-owned properties within the City of
Poway on December 17, 2009. All of the bank-owned properties within the vicinity of the project site
were included in this survey. The property locations are shown on Figure 1 (attached) and listed in
Table A.
As shown in Table A, of the 37 properties, 15 have been bank-owned for 0 to 3 months, 9 have been
bank-owned for 3 to 6 months, 5 have been bank-owned for 6 to 12 months, 6 have been bank-owned
for 12 to 18 months, and 2 have been bank-owned for over 18 months. Also, 5 of the homes are
condos and 32 are single-family properties.
Based on the windshield survey, approximately 70 percent of the foreclosed residential properties are
being lived in and approximately 30 percent are vacant. The occupied/unoccupied status of the
properties does not appear to be associated with the length of time the property has been bank-owned.
For example, of the eight properties that have been bank-owned for over 12 months, only two are
vacant. As such, beyond the fact that foreclosed properties within Poway are resold more quickly than
those within the County and the State, bank-owned properties within Poway do not necessarily and/or
generally remain vacant. Likewise, a large number of foreclosed properties within the City does not
necessarily equate to a large number of vacant properties.
The windshield survey also determined that there is minimal physical degradation of bank-owned
properties. Of the 37 properties, it is apparent that 2 properties are not being maintained. The lack of
maintenance is evident by the lawns and landscaping, which are overgrown, and a small amount of
trash debris. Property number 23, as shown on page 5 of 8, has been bank-owned for 3 to 6 months. It
is evident that the landscaping (lawn) has not been maintained and debris, including trash, paint
containers, old children’s toys, and a fold-up crib, has been left in front of the house. Property number
36, as shown on page 8 of 8, has been bank-owned for over 18 months. Based on the windshield
survey and the presence of a camper on the front lawn, the property is assumed to be lived in.
However, the landscaping (lawn and bushes) has not been maintained and trash debris is piled and
scattered across the front of the property.
Overall, the bank-owned properties are adequately maintained (35 of 37 properties). The properties
are not physically deteriorating and thus are not resulting in residential urban decay. The results of the
windshield survey of the foreclosed residential properties are graphically displayed through the
pictures of the single-family homes, which are attached. The property numbering corresponds to the
property locations shown on Figure 1.
LSA ASSOCIATES, INC.
01/12/10 «P:\PWY0901\Technical Info-Reports\Residential Urban Decay Memo ELH.doc» 3
Table A: Bank-Owned Properties in Poway
Map Number Address Dwelling Type
Properties Bank-Owned for 0 to 3 Months
1 14662 Dash Way Single-Family
2 12251 Witt Road Single-Family
3 13931 Midland Road Condo
4 12930 Morene Street Single-Family
5 14802 Morningside Drive Single-Family
6 13858 Midgrove Court Single-Family
7 12719 Robison Boulevard #6 Condo
8 14283 Arbolitos Drive Single-Family
9 13782 Sycamore Tree Lane Condo
10 13729 Frame Road Single-Family
11 14525 Garden Road Single-Family
12 13722 Frame Road Single-Family
13 14949 Cinchring Drive Single-Family
14 13511 Los Olivos Avenue Single-Family
15 14630 Merritt Park Lane Single-Family
Properties Bank-Owned 3 to 6 Months
16 13241 Tarascan Drive Single-Family
17 12604 Robison Boulevard Single-Family
18 12745 Robison Boulevard #18 Condo
19 14020 Frame Road Single-Family
20 12467 Metate Lane Single-Family
21 13813 Otis Place Single-Family
22 12941 Yankton Drive Single-Family
23 13430 Silver Lake Drive Single-Family
24 12643 Oak Knoll Road Single-Family
Properties Bank-Owned for 6 to 12 Months
25 14544 Kennebunk Street Single-Family
26 13557 Agsten Lane Single-Family
27 12318 Sophia Drive Condo
28 12724 Soule Street Single-Family
29 14553 Scarboro Street Single-Family
Properties Bank-Owned for 12 to 18 Months
30 12737 La Vista Way Single-Family
31 13439 Utopia Road Single-Family
32 12615 Orohaven Lane Single-Family
33 15201 Amso Street Single-Family
34 13355 Carriage Road Single-Family
35 14456 Kentfield Place Single-Family
Properties Bank-Owned over 18 Months
36 12728 Roberto Way Single-Family
37 15161 Huntington Court Single-Family
Attachment: Figure 1
Pictures of Single-Family Homes
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City of
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o
Po
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o
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Poway Rd
Twin Peaks Rd
Scripps P
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1
2
3
161718
30
31
32
4
5
6
7
33
8
36
37
34
25
26
910
11
27
28
19
20
12
21
13
22
14
23
35
24
15
29
LEGEND
Walmart Project Location
Bank Owned Properties
0 to 3 months
3 to 6 months
6 to 12 months
12 to 18 months
over 18 months
SOURCE: Digital Globe (2008), Thomas Bros (2008).
I:\PWY0901\GIS\BankOwnedParcels_NearProj_Fig1.mxd (12/23/2009)
FIGURE 1
Poway Walmart Expansion Project
Bank Owned Residential Properties
010002000
FEET
PhotosofBankOwnedResidentialProper
PowayWalmartExpansionProject
Property5Property4
I:\PWY0901\G\BankOwnedProp.cdr(01\06\10)
Property1Property2
PAGE1OF8LEGEND
BankOwnedProperties
0to3months
6to12months
12to18months
over18months3to6months
PowayWalmartExpansionProject
I:\PWY0901\G\BankOwnedProp.cdr(01/06/10)
Property11Property10
Property6Property8
PAGE2OF8LEGEND
BankOwnedProperties
0to3months
6to12months
12to18months
over18months3to6months PhotosofBankOwnedResidentialProper
PhotosofBankOwnedResidentialProper
PowayWalmartExpansionProject
Property15Property14
I:\PWY0901\G\BankOwnedProp.cdr(01/06/10)
Property12Property13
PAGE3OF8LEGEND
BankOwnedProperties
0to3months
6to12months
12to18months
over18months3to6months
Property20Property19
Property16Property17
PhotosofBankOwnedResidentialProper
PowayWalmartExpansionProject
I:\PWY0901\G\BankOwnedProp.cdr(01/06/10)
PAGE4OF8LEGEND
BankOwnedProperties
0to3months
6to12months
12to18months
over18months3to6months
PhotosofBankOwnedResidentialProper
PowayWalmartExpansionProject
Property24Property23
I:\PWY0901\G\BankOwnedProp.cdr(01/06/10)
Property21Property22
PAGE5OF8LEGEND
BankOwnedProperties
0to3months
6to12months
12to18months
over18months3to6months
PhotosofBankOwnedResidentialProper
PowayWalmartExpansionProject
Property30Property29
I:\PWY0901\G\BankOwnedProp.cdr(01/06/10)
Property25Property28
PAGE6OF8LEGEND
BankOwnedProperties
0to3months
6to12months
12to18months
over18months3to6months
PhotosofBankOwnedResidentialProper
PowayWalmartExpansionProject
Property34Property33
I:\PWY0901\G\BankOwnedProp.cdr(01/06/10)
Property31Property32
PAGE7OF8LEGEND
BankOwnedProperties
0to3months
6to12months
12to18months
over18months3to6months
PhotosofBankOwnedResidentialProper
PowayWalmartExpansionProject
Property37
I:\PWY0901\G\BankOwnedProp.cdr(01/06/10)
Property35Property36
PAGE8OF8LEGEND
BankOwnedProperties
0to3months
6to12months
12to18months
over18months3to6months