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4.0_Chapter 4.0 - Cumulative ImpactsChapter 4.0 Cumulative Impacts Chapter 4.0 – Cumulative Impacts Espola Road Improvement Project Final EIR 4-1 May 2013 4.0 CUMULATIVE IMPACTS In addition to project-specific impacts, CEQA requires consideration of a proposed project’s contribution to “cumulative impacts.” The State CEQA Guidelines define cumulative impacts as “two or more individual effects that, when considered together, are considerable or which compound or increase other environmental impacts” (State CEQA Guidelines Section 15355). In other words, a less-than-significant project effect may still contribute significantly to the cumulative condition. According to State CEQA Guidelines Section 15130, an EIR shall discuss cumulative impacts of a project when the project’s incremental effect is cumulatively significant. Projects included in a cumulative impacts analysis are based on either (1) a list of past, present and probable future projects, or (2) a summary of projections contained in adopted plans designed to evaluate regional or area-wide-conditions. For Espola Road, the City identified projects within the limits of the City of Poway. Recently completed, currently under construction, proposed and reasonably anticipated future development projects, as well as transportation projects, are identified below. Review of the environmental documents associated with the study area has not identified any project contingent upon the completion of the Espola Road Improvement Project. This is supported by the level of buildout evident in aerial photographs of the study area, which show that very minimal open areas remain adjacent to Espola Road. Thirteen projects in relative proximity (within the City of Poway) to the proposed Project were evaluated for cumulative impacts in association with the proposed Project. Each of the projects listed in Table 4-1, Cumulative Projects, would be or has been subject to its own environmental review and mitigation. Table 4-1 CUMULATIVE PROJECTS Project Name Proposed Uses Potential Resource Issues Status Tannin Drive Street Improvement Widen street to 40 ft curb to curb to intersection of Solera Way Biological resources (disturbed CSS) Project is approved and construction completed Boca Raton Reservoir Storage Upgrade Construction of new 250,000 gallon emergency storage reservoir next to existing reservoir at Boca Raton and Butterfield Trail Biological resources (CSS and indirect gnatcatcher impacts) and visual resources Project is approved and construction is completed Blue Sky Ecological Reserve Parking Lot and Outdoor Amphitheatre Construction of permanent parking lot, transportation facility (bus stop) and outdoor amphitheatre Biological resources (CSS and NNG) Parking lot and amphitheatre approved and construction completed Chapter 4.0 – Cumulative Impacts Espola Road Improvement Project Final EIR 4-2 May 2013 Table 4-1 (cont.) CUMULATIVE PROJECTS Project Name Proposed Uses Potential Resource Issues Status Fire Station III Construction of new fire station on Leone Way, south of Ted Williams Parkway Biological resources (CSS and NNG) and Noise Project is approved and construction is completed Community Road Widening Widen existing roadway to four lanes Biological resources (riparian) Project is approved and construction is completed Hidden Valley Ranch Residential Project 41 lot single-family residential subdivision of 400-acre parcel previously in agriculture Biological resources (NNG and CSS) Tentative Map has been approved Liguori Ranch Residential Project 29 lot single-family residential subdivision of a 500-acre parcel Visual, Land use, Air quality, Traffic, Biological resources and Cultural resources Project not approved. Design and environmental review are underway Cheng Development 4 lot single-family residential subdivision of a 160-acre parcel Biological resources (CSS, indirect gnatcatcher) The project has a Tentative Map pending approval Sabin (Old Coach Heights) 10 lot single-family subdivision of a 120-acre parcel in Old Coach area Visual, Biological resources (CSS and gnatcatcher) and Cultural resources Tentative Map has been approved Kent Hill Estates 12 lot single-family residential subdivision of urban infill area Traffic Project has been approved and built Hillside Village Affordable Housing 71 unit multi-family residential housing project Biological resources (NNG) Project is approved and construction is completed Solara Affordable Housing (Community Road and Hilleary Place) 40 unit multi-family residential housing project Not known Project is approved and built Brighton Place Affordable Housing (near Midland Road) 77 unit multi-family residential housing project NA Project is built Walmart Expansion (Community Road between Hilleary Place and Poway Road) Addition of 36,996 sq, ft, commercial retail uses to an existing 142,937 sq. ft. structure Traffic, Air Quality and Noise Project is approved Chapter 4.0 – Cumulative Impacts Espola Road Improvement Project Final EIR 4-3 May 2013 Table 4-1 (cont.) CUMULATIVE PROJECTS Project Name Proposed Uses Potential Resource Issues Status Lowes – Home Improvement Warehouse (Poway Road, west of Midland Road, at Gate Drive) Construction of new approximately 121,000 sq. ft. building with attached 31,500 sq. ft. garden center. Additional 4,500 sq. ft. building proposed for front portion of site adjacent to Poway Road Biological resources (CSS), Noise, Traffic, Archaeology and Hazardous materials Project is approved Toyota Dealership (Southeast corner of Poway Road and Midland Road) Relocation and expansion (9,000 sq. ft. expansion) of existing Toyota of Poway dealership to a former 5.5 ac automobile dealership site Noise and Cultural resources Project is built Notes: CSS = coastal sage scrub, NNG = non-native grasslands The 16 projects listed in Table 4-1 were evaluated for cumulative impacts related to the environmental resources discussed in this EIR. Half of the projects have been completed – construction-period effects would not occur within the same timeframe as the proposed Project if it is approved. The remainder of the projects generally consists of small (4 to 71 unit) residential projects or projects sited on already disturbed/developed lots. These projects have the potential to contribute to regionally significant cumulative operational, as well as construction period, impacts. The localized nature of certain environmental effects, the short-term nature and timing of construction impacts and comprehensive City and County policies for managing environmental resources (e.g., MSCP and NCCP) are all factors considered in the assessment of cumulative impacts. No adverse effects resulting from implementation of the proposed Project were identified for the issues of historical resources, hydrology and water quality, hazardous waste/materials, paleontological resources, public services, public utilities, agricultural resources, mineral resources, population/housing and recreation. Project alternatives, therefore, would not contribute to cumulative impacts associated with other planned projects in the City of Poway for these issues. Cumulative effects of proposed Espola Road and other projects could occur in the following resource areas: visual/aesthetics, noise, biological resources, hydrology/water quality, geology/soils, construction period traffic/transportation, air quality, and archaeological resources, where less than significant or significant Project-level impacts were assessed. Each of these issue areas is discussed below. Chapter 4.0 – Cumulative Impacts Espola Road Improvement Project Final EIR 4-4 May 2013 4.1 LAND USE As discussed in Section 2.1, significant land use impacts would be related to noise. One is focused on compliance with Policy H of Goal VII of the Public Safety Master Element, ensuring that City residents have a safe and pleasant acoustical environment. Certain residential properties along Espola Road would, in the year 2030, experience potential adverse noise effects due to projected traffic volumes (see Section 2.3). Mitigation measures related to noise, which are found in Section 2.3, would be implemented. Any potential adverse impacts to land use policy consistency would be adequately mitigated through implementation of these measures. With regard to cumulative impacts associated with this land use policy consistency issue, the reader is referred to Section 4.3, below. In summary, effects associated with the proposed Project would not be cumulatively considerable and no significant cumulative impact is assessed. City policies in the General Plan, as well as the City Municipal Code, note that sound walls should not exceed eight feet in height along City arterials. Although focused on noise attenuation, the underlying issue is related to visual effect. In this instance, a significant and unmitigable land use policy impact has been identified for the Project. This is a conservative assessment, and it is based on the fact that the ultimate height of recommended and approved sound walls for properties edging Espola Road may exceed the eight-foot height limit. If walls fit within budgeted parameters, are feasible from an engineering stand point and desired by 50 percent of the property owners shielded, the City would weigh sound abatement more heavily than potential adverse visual effects in these intermittent locations (refer to Figure 2.3-2 in Noise and discussion of this issue in Section 2.1, Land Use). Regardless, this Project-specific impact is not identified as contributing to a significant cumulative problem for this issue. The City is not aware of other locations where higher walls have been built in contravention of this ordinance. Even if such higher walls did exist, their isolation from the Espola Road walls exceeding the recommended height limits, as well as other Project-specific mitigation required for the Espola Road sound walls, would lower any contribution to a less than substantial level. 4.2 VISUAL/AESTHETICS As noted elsewhere in this EIR, the City of Poway has changed dramatically in the last few decades from a small agricultural community to a highly desirable urban and suburban community with a substantial population and a full complement of support services. As a result, although the City has worked to retain major topographic features and open space areas, the visual setting of the community is no longer one dominated by agricultural endeavors such as groves and cattle ranching, natural features and isolation. Within the more heavily populated portions of the City, buildings and other human modifications to the landscape and vegetation patterns provide dominant elements. The projects on Table 4-1 would be generally consistent with (i.e., contribute to continuing) these changes – although to differing degrees, as they range from four lots on a 160-acre parcel, to multi-family units, and/or generally consist of infill development. Implementation of the proposed Project would result in the expansion of an existing roadway and associated roadway improvements in an area that can generally be characterized as suburban. Chapter 4.0 – Cumulative Impacts Espola Road Improvement Project Final EIR 4-5 May 2013 The surrounding area is generally built out with mostly single-family residential uses. Portions of Espola Road immediately north and south of the proposed Project area are already improved to four lanes in width. This is the last portion of road (approximately 1.2 miles in length) abutted by relatively intense development that has not been upgraded. Given that the width and length of the proposed Project are relatively minor, the road is already improved to four lanes immediately north and south of the proposed Project area, and the loss of native vegetation and mature stands of trees generally occurs in areas backed by continuing acreage of the same habitat, the Project’s incremental contribution to regionally significant changes in area character would not be cumulatively considerable. No significant cumulative impact is assessed. 4.3 NOISE Noise levels within the City of Poway have increased substantially since the days when the City comprised an agricultural community of a few thousand residents. Today, noise levels throughout the area reflect the much larger and denser population, as well as the residential, recreational, commercial and transportation facilities that support this population. These cumulative effects would be incrementally exacerbated by the projects identified in Table 4-1. None of these projects, however, requires Espola Road to be widened prior to their project approval or implementation. The Espola Road improvements would be associated solely with relieving existing and projected continued congestion along the roadway and would not be related to other changes in decibel levels throughout the City. As noted in Section 2.3, existing decibel levels immediately adjacent to Espola Road within the study area exceed stated City thresholds. Construction activities, such as grading, earthwork, and possible blasting, would result in temporary increases in these ambient noise levels. These impacts, however, would not incrementally contribute to significant regional effects due to their extremely localized impact zone and their temporary nature. In order to minimize existing and potential operational noise impacts along Espola Road, implementation of design features described in Section 2.3 (including noise barriers and noise abatement measures) would be required. In some cases, the construction of noise barriers may be infeasible and the Project-specific impact would remain significant on certain parcels. Due to the extremely localized nature of these impacts, they are not assessed as significant on a community level. In summary, effects associated with the proposed Project would not be cumulatively considerable and no significant cumulative impact is assessed. 4.4 BIOLOGICAL RESOURCES Regional impacts to biological resources are currently addressed by an NCCP, initiated by the State of California under the special Section 4(d) rule of the federal ESA. The NCCP focuses on conserving sensitive habitat in order to avoid the need for future federal and state individual listing of habitat dependent species. The Project site also is located within the City’s Subarea Chapter 4.0 – Cumulative Impacts Espola Road Improvement Project Final EIR 4-6 May 2013 HCP planning area that is within the MSCP planning area. The MSCP is a multi-jurisdictional planning program designed to develop an ecosystem preserve within the City of San Diego and nearby areas, including the City of Poway. Project impacts to sensitive habitats, including wetlands and Diegan coastal sage scrub, would be mitigated according to the City’s Subarea HCP. As a result of Project mitigation and compliance with the NCCP and the City’s Subarea HCP, the proposed Project would not result in any post-mitigation Project-specific significant impacts to biological resources. Implementation of the Project would not substantially contribute to a regional cumulative impact to biological resources due to the following considerations: (1) the City has developed an HCP to address the cumulative effects of all projects within City limits; (2) the proposed Project would only incrementally reduce sensitive habitat located outside the Poway Mitigation Area; (3) the habitat impacted by the Project is not currently occupied by any threatened or endangered species; (4) impacts to sensitive habitats would be mitigated either adjacent to the impact area or in City-identified mitigation sites; and (5) the proposed Project would not otherwise create an adverse effect to sensitive plants or wildlife in accordance with CEQA Guidelines Section 15064. Any contribution by the proposed Project would not be cumulatively considerable, and no significant cumulative impact is assessed. 4.5 ARCHAEOLOGICAL RESOURCES Active development within the City and County as a whole has resulted in the loss of cultural resources. Particularly for those resources destroyed prior to environmental legislation, culturally and scientifically important information has been lost that may never be regained. This constitutes a significant cumulative regional loss. Ongoing loss is generally much less severe, for two reasons. First, human beings are largely attracted to similar areas for their activities. Regardless of cultural background, humans gravitate to areas rich in water and associated resources, as well as to those that provide excellent vantage points, or views. As a result, some of the richest cultural deposits were lost during early phases of urban expansion. Many of the remaining resources are more focused in purpose and localized in nature. In other words, a large number of sites discovered today are food processing stations or satellite camping areas as opposed to primary village locations. Second, environmental legislation has diminished the likelihood that discovered resources will be destroyed without contact with appropriate Native American descendants and/or data recovery, as appropriate. Resources discovered today require protection in order to minimize continued loss of finite, irreplaceable resources. With regard to the Espola Road Improvement Project, no surface indications of archaeological remains were noted. No known contribution to regional loss would occur. Nonetheless, alluvial and colluvial soils were noted for specific locales along the roadway. Potential impacts to unknown but possibly buried resources discovered during roadway construction could adversely impact research value and the information they can provide. As part of the mitigation noted in Section 2.5 of this EIR, artifact collections from any potentially significant site would be curated at the San Diego Archaeological Center and also would be available to others for further study. Information gained from test excavations and data recovery programs at other locations within the City also would be presented in reports and filed with the City and the South Coastal Information Center. Due to the ability to gather and document information for scientific use by Chapter 4.0 – Cumulative Impacts Espola Road Improvement Project Final EIR 4-7 May 2013 others, the Project would not contribute to a significant cumulative impact to archaeological resources. In sum, effects associated with the Espola Road Improvement Project would not be cumulatively considerable and no significant cumulative impact is assessed. 4.6 GEOLOGY/SOILS During implementation of the proposed roadway improvements, graded ground surfaces along the roadway would be exposed to potential erosional forces from strong winds or rainfall. Grading and construction activities involved in the proposed Project would contribute to potential cumulative erosion-related impacts associated with other approved and planned residential development within the Project vicinity. These are regional conditions that have been the focus of area planning agency concerns (including the RWQCB, County of San Diego and City), due to their cumulatively significant nature in the past. Continued administration and enforcement of the local grading and erosion control standards by the local government jurisdictions responsible for issuing grading and building permits, and continued application of erosion control BMPs (such as the erosion control measures listed in Section 2.6 for the proposed Project) are required elements of the NPDES General Construction Permits that must be obtained from the RWQCB. The purpose of these regulations and associated permits is to adequately address erosion and sedimentation effects. While regional adverse effects may still be significant, the Project BMPs would ensure that any Project-related contribution to cumulative impacts involving construction-generated erosion would not be cumulatively considerable. A potential impact associated with corrosive soils also has been identified for the proposed Project, which could affect upgraded water lines and drainage facilities installed as part of the proposed Project. Mitigation requirements similar to those identified for the proposed Project would be stipulated for other applicable projects listed in Table 4-1. These are Project-specific and localized impacts that would be mitigated by the construction design measures similar to those discussed in Section 2.6 and the Geotechnical Design Report (Appendix E). The Project would not considerably contribute to cumulative impacts associated with corrosive soils in the area. In sum, the geologic/soils effects associated with the Espola Road Improvement Project would not be cumulatively considerable and no significant cumulative impact is assessed. 4.7 TRAFFIC/TRANSPORTATION Development of the projects listed in Table 4-1 could exacerbate existing cumulatively significant traffic impacts, as additional vehicles would be added to City roadways. The long- term effects of the proposed Project would not contribute to this congestion, but rather would be beneficial, as it would improve the flow of traffic along Espola Road. As described in Section 3.1.1, however, the Project could result in temporary adverse effects during the construction period. Potential adverse effects resulting from Project construction would be localized to the construction area, short-term in nature and minimized through the use of standard traffic control devices. As a result of these considerations, traffic effects associated with the proposed Project would not be cumulatively considerable and no significant cumulative impact is assessed. Chapter 4.0 – Cumulative Impacts Espola Road Improvement Project Final EIR 4-8 May 2013 4.8 AIR QUALITY AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE Air Quality The SDAB is currently classified as a nonattainment area under federal standards for eight-hour O3 thresholds and state standards for O3 and PM10. It is also classified as a federal maintenance area for CO. These indicate that there is a cumulatively significant regional air quality issue within the SDAB. The projects identified in Table 4-1 would generate increased emission levels from transportation and stationary sources resulting in continued adverse cumulative air quality effects. Implementation of the Project would not result in any increases in traffic volumes, but rather would improve traffic flows and thus reduce emissions associated with idling due to traffic congestion. With regard to potential construction-period effects, Project emissions would not exceed significance criteria (which are set to address cumulative, regional air quality standards) and standard air quality attenuation measures are required as part of Project implementation. Air quality effects associated with the proposed Project would not, therefore, be cumulatively considerable and no significant cumulative impact is assessed. Global Climate Change Global climate change refers to long-term changes in temperature, precipitation, wind patterns, and other elements of the earth’s climate system. Global climate change is a cumulative impact; a project participates in this potential impact through its incremental contribution combined with the cumulative increase of all other sources of greenhouse gases (GHGs). While climate change has been a concern since at least 1988, as evidenced by the establishment of the United Nations and World Meteorological Organization’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the efforts devoted to GHG1 emissions reduction and climate change research and policy have increased dramatically in recent years. The IPCC has created multiple scenarios to project potential future global GHG emissions as well as to evaluate potential changes in global temperature, other climate changes, and their effect on human and natural systems. These scenarios vary in terms of the type of economic development, the amount of overall growth, and the steps taken to reduce GHG emissions. Non-mitigation IPCC scenarios project an increase in global GHG emissions by 9.7 up to 36.7 billion metric tons of CO2 from 2000 to 2030, which represents an increase of between 25 and 90 percent (IPCC 2007). Within California, it is recognized that 98 percent of California’s GHG emissions are from the burning of fossil fuels and 40 percent of all human-made GHG emissions are from transportation. Transportation’s contribution to GHG emissions is dependent on three factors: (1) types of vehicles on the road, (2) type of fuel the vehicles use, and (3) time/ distance the vehicles travel. In 2002, with the passage of Assembly Bill (AB) 1493, California launched an innovative and pro-active approach to dealing with GHG emissions and climate change at the state level. AB 1493 required ARB to develop and implement regulations to reduce automobile and light 1 Greenhouse gases related to human activity, as identified in AB 32, include: CO, methane, nitrous oxide, tetrafluoromethane, hexafluoroethane, sulfur hexafluoride, HFC-23, HFC-134a, and HFC-152a. Chapter 4.0 – Cumulative Impacts Espola Road Improvement Project Final EIR 4-9 May 2013 truck GHG emissions; these regulations apply to automobiles and light trucks beginning with the 2009 model year. Applicable standards were designed to comply with the regulation, but in order to enact the standards, California needed a waiver from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). After denial in 2007, the USEPA reconsidered and granted the waiver in June 2009. During the same time period, President Obama (May 18, 2009) announced the enactment of a 35.5-mile per gallon fuel economy standard for automobiles and light duty trucks which became effective in August 2012. California agencies will be working with federal agencies to conduct joint rulemaking to reduce GHG emissions for passenger cars model years 2017-2025. Also during the above period, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger signed Executive Order S-3-05 on June 1, 2005. The goal of this Executive Order is to reduce California’s GHG emissions to: (1) 2000 levels by 2010, (2) 1990 levels by the 2020, and (3) 80 percent below the 1990 levels by the 2050. In 2006, this goal was further reinforced with the passage of AB 32, the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006. AB 32 sets the same overall GHG emissions reduction goals while further mandating that ARB create a plan that includes market mechanisms, and implement rules to achieve “real, quantifiable, cost-effective reductions of greenhouse gases.” The Strategic Growth Plan targets a significant decrease in traffic congestion below today’s level and a corresponding reduction in GHG emissions while accommodating growth in population and the economy. The Strategic Growth Plan relies on a complete systems approach of a variety of strategies: system monitoring and evaluation, maintenance and preservation, smart land use and demand management, and operational improvements. Executive Order S-20-06 further directs state agencies to begin implementing AB 32, including the recommendations made by the state’s Climate Action Team. With Executive Order S-01-07, Governor Schwarzenegger set forth the low-carbon fuel standard for California. Under this Executive Order, the carbon intensity of California’s transportation fuels is to be reduced by at least 10 percent by 2020. As part of the supporting documentation for AB 32, ARB released the GHG Inventory for California (www.arb.ca.gov/cc/inventory/data/forecast.htm, most recently updated in October 2010). The forecast is an estimate of the emissions expected to occur in 2020 if none of the foreseeable measures included in the Scoping Plan were implemented. The forecast also shows that transportations emissions would increase over 1990 numbers by approximately 35 to 36 million tonnes CO2 equivalent. The difference between 2008 and 2020, however, is projected to be only approximately 3.5 million tonnes CO2 equivalent, demonstrating the anticipated improvements in vehicular emissions. SB 97, passed in 2007, required the Governor’s Office of Planning and Research to develop recommended amendments to the CEQA Guidelines for addressing GHG emissions. The amendments became effective on March 18, 2010. Climate change and GHG reduction is also a concern at the federal level. At this time, no legislation or regulations have been enacted specifically addressing GHG emissions reductions and climate change at the project level. Climate change and its associated effects are being addressed through various efforts at the federal level to improve fuel economy and energy efficiency, such as the “National Clean Car Program.” On April 2, 2007, in Massachusetts vs. Environmental Protection Agency et al., the Supreme Court ruled that GHGs do fit within the CAA’s definition of a pollutant, and that the EPA does have the authority to regulate GHGs. Consistent with this finding, on Chapter 4.0 – Cumulative Impacts Espola Road Improvement Project Final EIR 4-10 May 2013 December 7, 2009, the EPA Administrator made two findings under Section 202(a) of the CAA: (1) current and projected concentrations of the key GHGs—CO2, CH4, N2O and HFCs, among others, threaten the public health and welfare of current and future generations; and (2) the combined emissions of these GHGs from new motor vehicles and new motor vehicle engines contribute to the GHG pollution. Although these findings did not themselves impose any requirements on industry or other entities, this action was a prerequisite to finalizing the USEPA’s proposed GHG emission standards for light-duty vehicles, jointly proposed by the USEPA and Department of Transportation’s National Highway Safety Administration on September 15, 2009. On May 7, 2010, the final Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards were published in the Federal Register. The USEPA and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) also are taking coordinated steps to enable production of a new generation of clean vehicles with reduced GHG emissions and improved fuel efficiency; including developing the first-ever GHG regulations for heavy-duty engines and vehicles, as well as additional light-duty vehicle GHG regulations. These steps were outlined by President Obama in a memorandum on May 21, 2010.2 The final combined USEPA and NHTSA standards that make up the first phase of this national program apply to passenger cars, light-duty trucks, and medium-duty passenger vehicles, covering model years 2012 through 2016. These standards will cut GHG emissions by an estimated 960 million metric tons and 1.8 billion barrels of oil over the lifetime of the vehicles sold under the program (model years 2012-2016). On January 24, 2011, the USEPA along with the U.S. Department of Transportation and the State of California announced a single timeframe for proposing fuel economy and greenhouse gas standards for model years 2017-2025 cars and light-trucks. Proposing the new standards in the same timeframe (September 1, 2011) signals continued collaboration that could lead to an extension of the current National Clean Car Program. An additional key strategy to reduce GHG emissions is to make California’s transportation system more efficient. The highest levels of CO2 from mobile sources, such as automobiles, occur at stop-and-go speeds (0 to 25 miles per hour) and speeds over 55 miles per hour; the most severe emissions occur from 0 to 25 miles per hour. Relieving congestion by enhancing operations and improving travel times in high congestion travel corridors would lead to an overall reduction in GHG emissions. In general, it can be noted that there are several additional key variables that are likely to change dramatically during the design life of the proposed Project and would thus also factor into lowered CO2 emissions: 1. Vehicle fuel economy is increasing, as noted above. 2. Near-zero carbon vehicles will come into the market during the design life of the proposed Project. Large advancements have occurred in fuel cell vehicle and hydrogen infrastructure technology over the past 15 years. Fuel cell technology has progressed 2 http://epa.gov/otaq/climate/regulations.htm Chapter 4.0 – Cumulative Impacts Espola Road Improvement Project Final EIR 4-11 May 2013 substantially resulting in power density, efficiency, range, cost, and durability all improving each year. 3. As previously stated, California has recently adopted a low-carbon transportation fuel standard. 4. Although not expected to affect Espola Road directly as many of the trips are local and stay on local roadways, overall driver behavior has been changing as the U.S. economy and oil prices have changed. In its 2008 report, “Effects of Gasoline Prices on Driving Behavior and Vehicle Market,” the Congressional Budget Office found the following results based on data collected from California: (1) freeway motorists have adjusted to higher gas prices by making fewer trips and driving more slowly; (2) the market share of sports utility vehicles is declining; and (3) the average prices for larger, less-fuel-efficient models have declined over the past five years as average prices for the most-fuel-efficient automobiles have risen, showing an increase in demand for the more fuel efficient vehicles. All of these elements would have an effect on GHG emissions in the region. Regardless, the reality of global climate change is understood and planning for its effects is underway. “Adaptation strategies” refer to how the City can plan for the effects of climate change on transportation infrastructure and strengthen or protect the facilities from damage. For instance, global climate change is expected to produce increased variability in precipitation, rising temperatures, rising sea levels, storm surges and intensity, and the frequency and intensity of wildfires. Within the City, these changes may affect the transportation infrastructure in various ways, such as damaging roadbeds by longer periods of intense heat or increasing storm damage from flooding and erosion. Climate change adaption must also involve the natural environment as well. Efforts are underway on a statewide-level to develop strategies to cope with impacts to habitat and biodiversity through planning and conservation. The results of these efforts will help California agencies plan and implement mitigation strategies for programs and projects. The Natural Resources Agency (previously known as the California Resources Agency), through the interagency Climate Action Team, was directed to coordinate with local, regional, state, and federal public and private entities to develop a state Climate Adaptation Strategy. The Climate Adaptation Strategy will summarize the best-known science on climate change impacts to California, assess California’s vulnerability to the identified impacts and then outline solutions that can be implemented within and across state agencies to promote resiliency. The City recognizes the concern that CO2 emissions raise for climate change. There are, however, no regulatory agency-approved models that operate at the global or even statewide scale. The City is therefore unable to provide a quantitative conclusion regarding contribution on the cumulative scale to climate change. Regardless, the City is firmly committed to compliance with AB 32, and (although control of fuel economy standards is held by USEPA and ARB) is supportive of efforts to reduce vehicle miles traveled by planning and implementing smart land use strategies: job/housing proximity, developing transit-oriented communities and high-density housing along transit corridors. Chapter 4.0 – Cumulative Impacts Espola Road Improvement Project Final EIR 4-12 May 2013 Specifically with regard to Espola Road, construction GHG emissions include those produced as a result of material processing, on-site construction equipment, and traffic delays due to construction. These emissions would be produced at different levels throughout the construction period; their frequency and occurrence can be reduced through innovations in plans and specifications and by implementing better traffic management during construction. In addition, with innovations, such as longer pavement lives, improved traffic management plans, and changes in materials, the GHG emissions produced during construction can be mitigated to some degree by longer intervals between maintenance and rehabilitation events. With regard to Year 2030 analysis, the purpose of the Project is to improve traffic flow and reduce congestion on Espola Road, in addition to improving general access along the roadway. The Project would not generate new vehicular traffic trips since it would not construct new homes or businesses. Based on Appendix F, by allowing through traffic to continue to move as turning traffic enters the center lane and minimizes backup, the Project would reduce congestion and improve LOS. Relieving congestion by enhancing operations and improving travel times in high-congestion travel corridors would lead, in general, to an overall reduction in GHG emissions. To the extent that it is applicable or feasible, the following measures can also help to reduce the GHG emissions and potential climate change impacts from projects: 1. Use of drought-tolerant landscaping, such as planned for Espola Road—currently 30 percent of the electricity used in California is used for the treatment and delivery of water. Use of reclaimed water helps conserve this energy, which reduces GHG emissions from electricity production. 2. Landscaping—Overall, vegetation reduces surface warming and through photosynthesis decreases CO2. The Project proposes planting of trees, shrubs, vines, and groundcover on modified slopes and landscaped strips. This vegetation would help offset any potential CO2 emissions increase. 3. Portland cement—use of lighter color surfaces such as Portland cement helps to reduce the albedo effect and cool the surface. Adding fly ash to Portland cement reduces the GHG emissions associated with cement production—it also can make the pavement stronger. 4. Use of energy-efficient lighting, such as the Light Emitting Diode (LED) traffic signals used by the City. 5. Idling restrictions for trucks and equipment during construction to 10 minutes in each direction; in addition, the contractor must comply with San Diego Air Pollution Control District’s rules, ordinances, and regulations in regard to air quality restrictions. GHG emissions associated with Project construction would be extremely minimal in the global context. Because the Project would help relieve congestion on Espola Road and would implement other measures (as noted above) to reduce GHG emissions, it would assist in the reduction of GHG emissions from vehicles using Espola Road. Therefore, the Project’s contribution to global climate change would not be cumulatively considerable and no significant cumulative impact is assessed.